Morning Bites

🏭 EMAL has restored 25% of reduction cells at its damaged 1.5mnt aluminium plant, which was shutdown in late March, the company has said in a press-release. Management expects to repair all critical equipment and return to full hot metal production in 1Q27. As for now, 1.1mntpa of capacity (~1.5% of global primary Al output) is yet to be restored

We remind readers that ~60% of the region's Al operations were affected to various extents during the Middle East conflict (including UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the sluggish supply recovery, we anticipate soft production dynamics in the region to persist at least until the end-2026. We expect the global aluminium market to remain in a deficit of ~3% of demand in 2026F, supporting tight market balances

We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, are likely to further support the Al price, which we forecast to average USD ~3,400/t in 2026F

#aluminium