Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗China’s crude steel output was down 4% YoY in July, vs. June's unchanged YoY figure, per NBS data. On a 7mo26 basis, production was down 3% YoY

Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including the 4% YoY decline for FY25, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes have also started to contract gradually in 2026 (4% YoY in 7mo26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of steel supplies and thus lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27 at least

🏢China's property sales declined 22% YoY in July, after the 16% YoY fall in June; they were also 62% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 39% YoY in July (80% than in 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 10% YoY last month (65% lower than 2021), while property completions were down 44% YoY

#steel #property