Morning Bites

🔗China’s crude steel output was flat YoY in June, vs. the 3% decline YoY in May, per NBS data. On a 1H26 basis, production was also down 3% YoY

Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes have also started to contract gradually in 2026 (they were down 5% YoY in 1H26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of steel supplies and thus lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27 at least

🏢China's property sales declined 16% YoY in June, after the 14% YoY fall in May; they were also 60% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 26% YoY in June (80% than in 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 11% YoY last month (64% lower than 2021), while property completions were down 25% YoY

#steel #property