Morning Bites

🔗China’s crude steel output declined 3% YoY in May, in line with April, per NBS data. On a 5mo26 basis, the production was down 4% YoY

Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes have also started to decline gradually in 2026 (-8% YoY in 5mo26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of steel supplies and thus lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27

🏢China's property sales declined 14% YoY in May, after the 10% YoY fall in April; they were also 62% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 25% YoY in April (-80% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 13% YoY last month (-63% vs. 2021), while property completions were down 20% YoY

#steel #property