Morning Bites

🔗China’s crude steel output declined 3% YoY in April, vs. the 6% YoY drop in March, per NBS data. On a 4mo26 basis, production was down 4% YoY

Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including -4% YoY in 2025, per official data), Chinese net steel export volumes have also started to decline gradually in early 2026 (-9% YoY in 4mo26), which we believe might bolster normalisation of steel supplies and lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, normalisation might last through 2026-27

🏢China's property sales decreased 10% YoY in April, after the 8% YoY fall in March; they were also 60% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 27% YoY in April (-80% vs. 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 23% YoY last month (-69% vs. 2021), while property completions were down 19% YoY

#steel #property