Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output fell 2.1% YoY in April, after the revised 0.2% YoY gain in March, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (62% of global Al output) grew 1.5% YoY last month; local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI); in 4mo26, its annualised output was 44.7mnt

Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 34.7% YoY in April, due to the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations were affected to various extents since late-February (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the nature of the damage, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until the year’s end

We maintain our view that strong consumption in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over supply from the Middle East, create upside risks for our Al price forecast, which sees an average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F

#aluminium