Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 1.0% YoY in March, after the 1.4% YoY gain in February, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) grew 1.6% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in 3mo26, its annualised output was 44.6mnt

The Middle East (9% of global Al supply) is becoming a key upside risk factor for the aluminium market. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations have been affected since the onset of the conflict (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum)

We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with rising concerns about supply from the Middle East, create upside risks for our aluminium price forecast, which sees an average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F

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