Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 0.9% YoY in February, after the 1.2% YoY gain in January, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) grew 1.6% YoY last month. We note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, and 44.2mnt in 2025, per IAI data); in 2mo26, annualised output was 44.6mnt

Middle East (9% of global Al supply) is becoming a key risk factor for the aluminium market. While no major production shutdowns have been confirmed so far, disruptions are emerging: Aluminium Bahrain has declared force majeure on exports, while Qatar’s Qatalum might halt production amid gas availability issues

We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, create upside risks for aluminium prices, which we forecast to average USD ~3,100/t in 2026F

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