Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output declined 4% YoY in March to 160mnt, after the 2% drop YoY in February, World Steel Association (WSA) data show. China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply) decreased 6% YoY, while world ex-China output also inched down 2% YoY, per the WSA numbers. Specifically, the data show that Russian and EU output dropped 11% and 5% YoY, respectively, last month, but that US production increased 5% YoY and Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 9% YoY (also up 11% YoY in 3mo26)

Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe Beijing might continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis, even though the current five-year plan does not contain explicit targets for capacity cuts. After surging exports in 2023–25 weighed on global prices, further gradual supply-side measures could help rebalance the market and support steel prices in 2026

#steel