Morning Bites

🔗China’s net finished steel exports declined 13% YoY in March, vs. the 7% YoY drop in 2mo26. On a 3mo26 basis, net exports slid 10% YoY. In our view, Beijing's recent introduction of an export licence requirement for steel shipments from 2026 could have an effect on volumes. Although China aims to further reduce “excessive” steel output in 2026 (which was also -4% YoY in 2025) and strictly prohibits new capacity additions, exports (which increased 25% YoY in 2024 and 8% YoY in 2025) remain close to historical highs. Even though the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts, further gradual supply-side measures could help rebalance the market and support steel prices, we believe

🪨China’s coal imports inched up 1% YoY in March, remaining in-line with January-February’s dynamic. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD) expects local coal imports to decline 5% YoY 465mnt in 2026, given the upcoming supply restrictions in Indonesia

#coal #steel