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Morning Bites (part 1)

⛏️ Indonesia plans to cap coal production below 700mnt in 2026 to help stabilise global prices, local media report, citing the country’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources. For context, in 2024, Indonesia produced 836mnt of coal, representing ~9% of global supply. The 2026 cap implies a drop off some 5% and 16% vs. the 2025 (~740mnt planned) and 2024 output levels, respectively

In our view, any material production tightening in Indonesia could bolster global thermal coal prices, as the country accounts for >40% of the world’s thermal coal exports (555mnt in 2024). To recap, at spot, FOB Newcastle (6,000kcal) price remains ~10% below its fundamentally reasonable level (~USD120/t, on our numbers)

#coal
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