Morning Bites

🏗China’s excavator sales jumped 26% YoY in March (domestic + export), vs. the -11% YoY seen in February, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 23% YoY (but 67% lower than the same period in 2021). In our view, March data, which are the most seasonally important for Chinese excavator sales, provide a mildly bullish indicator of the prospects for a recovery in the local property sector in 2026

The gradual recovery of Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, suggests that local construction activity is slowly bottoming out, in our view. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (after -4% YoY in 2025, per official data). We believe that these factors might reduce surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026

#steel