Morning Bites (part 2)

🏗China’s excavator sales fell 11% YoY in February (domestic + export), a major reversal from the 50% YoY increase in January, per CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were down 42% YoY (also 72% lower than the same period in 2021). In our view, the contraction seen last month might be associated with the later start of the Lunar New Year in 2026. We also remind readers that the upcoming March data is the most seasonally important print for Chinese excavator sales, and might provide insight into the prospects for the local property sector recovery in 2026

The gradual recovery in Chinese excavator sales, recorded since mid-2024, indicates that local construction activity is slowly bottoming out. Meanwhile, Beijing plans to further cut 'excessive' steel output in 2026 (-4% YoY in 2025, per official data). These factors might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in 2026, in our view

#steel