Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in late-November was 1.82mnt, down 6.4% vs. the previous ten days and 13.1% lower YoY. Local steel inventories also fell 8.5% over the period, but were 8.6% higher YoY

CISA data show that on a YTD basis (through 30 November), the local production slid 0.5% YoY; however, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain elevated

To recap, in late-October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel