Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-November was 1.94mnt, up 0.9% vs. the previous ten days, but 6.6% lower YoY. Local steel inventories rose 0.8% over the period, and were 0.4% higher YoY

CISA data show that on a YTD basis (through 20 November), production stood flat YoY; however, per official NBS data, the country's steel output was down 3.9% YoY in 10mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 10mo25) remain elevated

To recap, in late-October China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the continuous crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt steelmaking capacities were removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel