Morning Bites (part 1)

🥉Global mined copper production fell 1.2% YoY in August, vs. the significantly revised gain of 1.9% YoY (previously +7.2% YoY) in July, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports. The figure, however, was still up 2.2% YoY on an 8mo25 basis, mainly driven by the growth in Peru (+2.6% YoY) and the DRC (+8% YoY). In our view, the negative production dynamics might continue in the coming months, given the recent accidents and production disruptions at major mines: Grasberg (~3.5% of global supply in 2024), El Teniente (~2.0%) and Kakula (~1.5%)

Meanwhile, apparent consumption dynamics continued to grow; they were up 6% YoY in 8mo25, mainly driven by China (+9% YoY)

We maintain our bullish view on copper, amid both short- and long-term supply issues, growing demand for renewables globally, and surging investments in China’s grid infrastructure (~8% of global Cu demand, on our numbers)

#copper