Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output was flat YoY in August at 145mnt, vs. the 1% YoY decline in July, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply) dropped 1% YoY (being -3% YoY in 8mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russian and EU supply dropped 5% YoY and 3% YoY, respectively, last month. Meanwhile, US production rose 3% YoY, while Indian output (~10% of global steel supply) gained 13% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 8mo25 basis

To recap, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' supply in 2025. Per market participants, these measures might affect 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply. In our view, this is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026

#steel