Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output declined 1% YoY, to 150mnt in July, vs. the 6% YoY fall in June, according to World Steel Association data. China’s production (53% of global crude steel supply in July) dropped 4% YoY (being -3% YoY in 7mo25), while world ex-China output rose 2% YoY, per WSA data. Specifically, Russia and EU supply dropped 2% YoY and 7% YoY last month, though we believe Russia’s actual decline was sharper. Meanwhile, US production rose 5% YoY, while Indian output (~9% of global steel supply) gained 14% YoY, also being up 10% YoY on 7mo25 basis

We remind readers that Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (which might mean a decline 2-5% YoY, per market estimates), which is likely to cool surging Chinese steel exports and support global prices in late-2025 or 2026, we believe

#steel