Morning Bites (part 1)

🏭Global primary aluminium output inched up 1.3% YoY in June, vs. the +2.0% YoY in May, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 1.7% YoY last month, while ex. China output was up only 0.6% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU and China, as well as the expected additional US fed rate cuts in 2H25, are likely to add further support to Al, which we forecast to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.7mnt in 1H25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)

#aluminium