Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 1.9% YoY in May, vs. the +2.6% YoY in April, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) increased 2.4% YoY last month, while ex. China output rose 1.1% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which we expect to reach USD 2,700-2,900/t by late 2025 - early 2026

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 43.7mnt in 5mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)

#aluminium