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Subsequent announcements focused on advances towards recovering the coastline around Bab al-Mandab in the direction of Mokha, while later statements reported the recapture of positions in Dhubab and Hayfan. These claims must be assessed by the stability of territorial control, the ability to weaken the blockade and, ultimately, whether a viable route towards Sana’a has been opened. The recovery of territory lost only weeks earlier remains subject to considerable doubt, and the continued fighting and conflicting accounts of control also underscore the failure to achieve the operation’s stated objective.

Meanwhile, attacks on Saudi airports continued, and strikes on facilities in areas controlled by Sana’a resumed. This confrontation cannot be understood as a symmetrical war of attrition measured simply by the number of strikes. Yemen has endured destruction for eleven years, while Saudi Arabia must protect a large economy that depends on the uninterrupted movement of goods, energy supplies and investment. Disrupting an airport or threatening a facility imposes costs beyond direct physical damage, including additional security and insurance expenses, operational disruption and damage to confidence. The continuation of Yemen’s response indicates that Saudi bombing has not eliminated the capability it sought to silence.

The strategic significance of Saudi oil and refining facilities in the global economy is even greater. Threats to export terminals affect shipping risks and the timing of energy deliveries, while attacks on refineries can put pressure on the availability of refined products, particularly diesel. The availability of crude oil does not automatically resolve problems involving refining, transportation and delivery. Continued confrontation therefore also burdens importing countries, increasing their interest in a settlement that secures supplies. From this perspective, the pressure campaign that pushed Washington towards signing a memorandum of understanding with Iran offers a relevant comparison: when a decisive military outcome proves elusive and energy-market disruption becomes costly, negotiations can become an option dictated by economic interests.

🔻@enemywatch