Coin Post – Money, Investments, Bitcoin

Lululemon (LULU) shares plunged 20% following their earnings release. They are now trading at their lowest level since 2018.

I looked into this company earlier this year, well before the latest data came in. In this post, I’ll share some retrospective alpha 👇 on why I decided to pass on it back then, so you know what warning signs to look out for.

Lululemon is a leading global designer, distributor, and retailer of premium athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories.

Let’s take a retrospective look at the company as if we were analyzing it at the start of this year. Back then (just like now), the price looked very tempting.

The positives:

🔠 Consistently growing year-over-year revenue (everything looks great on the surface)

🔠 Solid cash reserves on the balance sheet

🔠 There is debt, but it doesn't pose an immediate threat—all good here

🔠 Free Cash Flow isn’t skyrocketing, but it’s certainly not bad either

🔠 P/E Ratio dropped to 9.83 (looks like a no-brainer buy, right?)

🔠 Strong margins compared to peers—Lululemon outpaces the vast majority of the market in profitability

However, margins across the board were contracting compared to the company’s own historical averages (and continuous expansion is critical). On top of that, guidance was already weak back then, another major red flag signaling a sharp slowdown across all key metrics �

The company has clearly peaked and isn't poised for growth anytime soon. With companies like this—especially outside the tech sector—it’s best not to buy in hoping for a miracle. The odds of finding a new growth catalyst are slim. Just look at Nike, which has been sliding for five years now.

A miracle could always happen, of course, but let’s not gamble with our own money 🤩

Is it worth doing breakdowns of underperforming companies? Drop a like to let me know 👍

Here is another space-themed investment idea: Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB). It is the primary publicly traded beneficiary of the expanding space economy and the only viable alternative to SpaceX across the U.S. commercial and defense sectors.

🚨 Whether you've noticed or not, everything space-related is currently trending. Musk sells the future to investors and the public through robotics, space, AI, and beyond 🤖

Riding this wave, Rocket Lab makes a compelling portfolio addition.

Core Business: launch services: Deploying payloads to orbit via the light-lift Electron rocket, alongside the ongoing development of the medium-lift Neutron rocket.
Space Systems: Manufacturing core components (solar panels, sensors, reaction wheels) and delivering turnkey satellite platforms (Photon, Lightning).

Competitors: launch Services: SpaceX (Falcon 9 / Starship), Blue Origin (New Glenn), ULA, Firefly Aerospace. Satellite Components & Manufacturing: Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, Terran Orbital.

Market Share: electron dominates the commercial small-satellite launch segment with a >60% market share. In satellite components and platforms, their share sits at 3–5%, but it is scaling rapidly thanks to government contracts.

⚪️ Strengths:
Complete vertical integration (manufacturing both components and launch vehicles). Positioned as the Pentagon's vital redundancy partner to hedge against potential SpaceX disruptions. Rapidly expanding order book (Backlog > $2.3B).

⚪️ Weaknesses & Risks:
Potential timeline delays and cost overruns tied to the Neutron rocket program. Pricing pressure from Falcon 9 rideshare missions. High capital intensity inherent to the sector.

Key Long-Term Contracts:
• SDA (Space Development Agency): Awards of $816M (Tranche 3 Tracking Layer) and $515M to design and manufacture missile-warning satellites (totalling $1.3B+).

• U.S. Space Force: A $397M deal to build and launch a dedicated satellite constellation.

• MDA Space / Globalstar: A $143M contract to manufacture 17 communications spacecraft.

� The company fits well into a long-term strategy, showing steady year-over-year operational growth. Expect high volatility, as with any growth asset in this segment. The optimal entry method is dollar-cost averaging (DCA) on local pullbacks.

Whenever a high-conviction growth stock drops 50% from its peak, it demands attention. It is currently sitting at a 58% correction from all-time highs �

To avoid guessing the current BTC market phase, here is a prompt that will conduct an analysis and provide a clear answer.

The prompt automatically finds fresh BTC data, determines the global market phase, and shows the confidence level of the current regime.

What it does:
▶️ Determines the global regime: BULL, BEAR, or TRANSITION
▶️ Identifies the specific phase of the Bitcoin market cycle
▶️ Checks trend, momentum, derivatives, on-chain metrics, and market positioning
▶️ Separately evaluates medium-term and short-term trends
▶️ Highlights risks and trigger conditions that would change the assessment

The Prompt:

You are a Bitcoin market regime analyst. Determine the CURRENT global Bitcoin regime and phase using fresh, verifiable data.
DATA RULES:
Find current data yourself from reliable public sources.
Check update times; never present stale data as current.
Cross-check critical data with 2 independent sources when possible.
Prefer major exchanges, TradingView, CoinGlass, Glassnode/CryptoQuant public data, CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap, CME, Farside, or similar reputable sources.
Never invent missing values. Reduce the weight of unavailable or conflicting data.
Separate short-term price action from the global cycle.
TASK:
First classify the GLOBAL regime:
BULL / BEAR / TRANSITION
Then choose the most accurate phase:
Accumulation / Early Bull / Bull Market / Late Bull-Euphoria / Distribution / Early Bear / Bear Market / Capitulation / Transitional-Unclear
Use TRANSITION only when the global cycle itself is mixed or changing.
INTERNAL ASSESSMENT:
Internally score each block from -2 to +2:
Trend, Momentum, Derivatives, On-chain, Sentiment/Positioning.
Use the combined score to help determine the phase and confidence, but NEVER show numeric scores.
Confidence must reflect how strongly fresh, reliable, and consistent evidence supports the selected global phase.
MULTI-TIMEFRAME:
Assess:
Medium-term / daily structure
Short-term / local trend
Use only relevant evidence: market structure, price vs 50D/200D and 200W MA, RSI, momentum, volume, realized price, MVRV or similar on-chain metrics, funding, open interest, basis, liquidations, positioning, volatility, and ETF/institutional flows.
Separate trend direction from correction risk. A bullish local trend may still have high correction risk if overheated.
OUTPUT:
Answer ONLY in English. Keep it concise.
Market Regime: [BULL / BEAR / TRANSITION]
Global Phase: [phase]
Phase Confidence: [0-100%]
Key Takeaway:
[1-2 short sentences]
Factor Assessment:
Trend: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish] — [short reason]
Momentum: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish] — [short reason]
Derivatives: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish] — [short reason]
On-chain: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish / Data insufficient] — [short reason]
Sentiment / Positioning: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish] — [short reason]
Timeframes:
Medium-term: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish + short note]
Short-term Trend: [Bullish / Neutral / Bearish + short note]
If there is meaningful near-term risk, add:
Local Trend Risk Assessment:
[Low / Medium / High] — [brief reason]
Otherwise omit this section.
What Would Change the Assessment:
[key condition or level]
[key condition or level]
[optional third condition]
Data:
[analysis date/time + main sources with links]
IMPORTANT:
Judge the GLOBAL regime first. A correction inside a bull cycle is not automatically a bear market, and a rally inside a bear cycle is not automatically a bull market.

How to use: paste the prompt into an AI tool that has access to real-time market data. Remember that final decisions are always yours to make; this prompt simply saves you market analysis time.

Save, share, and support the post 👍

📌 More than a quarter of Gen Z (ages 14–29) consider sports betting part of their long-term financial strategy. 52% of them redirected money intended for investments toward sports betting last year.

Breakdown 👆
🟧 Share of respondents who view sports betting as a deliberate part of their long-term financial strategy
⬛ Share of respondents who allocated investment funds to sports betting at least once over the past year

What are we going to do with this?

Bitcoin is squeezed between two major liquidation clusters: shorts between $82k and $86k, and longs from $78k down to $60k. Flushing the bulls looks far more appealing for the market after the August pump, but the bears are within much closer reach right now — all it takes is one good catalyst 🕯

Right now, we’re seeing a pullback below $80k because US unemployment held steady at 4.1%, while non-farm payrolls came in 3x higher than expected. The markets are on edge, but low unemployment alone isn't a reason for the Fed to hike rates; Kevin Warsh will be watching the September 11 inflation data closely. If inflation is brought under control, the Fed will keep rates unchanged, which could trigger a rally.

💵 This scenario would open a window of opportunity to remember that crypto isn't just BTC and ETH. Take the charts of Sui, Sei, Aptos, and Arbitrum - all of them printed a bullish divergence, and ARB is already up +57% on the week.

💬 To be clear: this isn’t about the start of a full-blown bull run or an altseason. It’s about a tactical window for speculative altcoin plays — provided BTC manages to hold the $78k level and reclaim momentum above $80k.

SoFi CEO has bought $2.25M worth of his company’s stock over the past year. Usually, that’s a good signal.

Today, we’re taking a look at SoFi Technologies — one of the most dynamic fintech companies in the US, which is currently completing a major and highly successful fundamental transition from a “loss-making startup” into a profitable, mature, and rapidly growing digital bank. The growth outlook looks promising 🐸

SoFi’s business is built around three key segments:
⚪️ Lending: origination and refinancing of personal, student, and mortgage loans

⚪️ Financial services: an ecosystem of products for individuals, including savings and checking accounts, brokerage and crypto services (SoFi Invest / SoFi Crypto), credit cards, and budgeting tools (SoFi Relay)

⚪️ Technology platform: B2B solutions Galileo (payment processing and card issuance) and Technisys (cloud-based core banking)

Main competitors:
⚪️ Neobanks and fintechs: Robinhood, Block / Cash App (SQ), Chime, Revolut, PayPal

⚪️ Traditional US banks

Market share and long-term contracts:

• In the commercial student loan refinancing segment, SoFi is the largest online player in the US
• In retail neobanking, the company has a strong position among young, high-income paying customers, with around 16M customers
• Galileo serves more than 150M active accounts globally, acting as a key infrastructure provider for third-party fintechs
• SoFi Stadium naming rights: a 20-year contract worth more than $600M for naming rights to the Los Angeles stadium through 2039, providing continuous marketing exposure
• Long-term Galileo B2B contracts: multi-year agreements with neobanks for payment processing services
• Loan portfolio sales: long-term agreements with institutional investors and funds for the regular purchase of pools of personal loans originated by SoFi

SoFi has corrected 50% over the past year. The previous 50% correction in 2025 was followed by a 230% rally.

We all know how strongly neobanks have performed recently. But it’s important to understand that this is a volatile company and an aggressive idea, with all the risks that come with it.
If we expect a softer credit policy, and everything is already pointing in that direction, as I wrote before, companies like this could really take off. It’s basically crypto in the stock market.
That’s why I’d split the planned investment capital for SoFi into 3–4 parts and start building the position gradually.

Ray Dalio breaks down the US national debt: the point of no return may have already been crossed 🗽

For context: Dalio is that very 77-year-old grandpa worth $22 billion who was partying hard in Ibiza just a month ago.

The recent Treasury sell-off and the Treasury Department’s emergency intervention attempt aren't just market noise, they are symptoms of a severe chronic illness. The US is trapped in a "big debt cycle" spiral because it spent decades living beyond its means, and now this house of cards is ready to collapse.

Hard numbers:

🟠 This year, the US plans to bring in $5,5 trillion in revenue while spending $7,5 trillion
🟠 Every American family accounts for roughly $240k of the national debt
🟠 20% of federal revenue goes solely toward debt service - $1 trillion a year
🟠 Over the next 10 years, the national debt will reach $55–$60 trillion

According to Dalio's assessment, the point of no return, where the issue could still be fixed by cutting spending and hiking taxes, might already be behind us. As a result:

▶️ Long-term rates are climbing faster than short-term ones
▶️ The Treasury is artificially shortening the maturities of newly issued bonds
▶️ The dollar is weakening against hard assets (like gold)

The peak of the debt crisis is expected between 2027 and 2029, but the US is simply "too big to fail" - there won't be an outright default. Instead, the money printer will be dialed up to full blast, debasing the dollar at a record pace.

Dalio advises against trying to time the crisis, recommending right now to:

🟢 Diversify capital across different countries and asset classes
🟢 Stay far away from long-term Treasuries
🟢 Look toward hard assets like gold

💬 And we recommend looking toward Bitcoin, which is set to be the primary winner once the money printer kicks into overdrive.

Fact: During the first green August in bear market history, whales holding 100+ BTC added 60 000 BTC 🐳

At the same time, retail was actively selling:
• 1–100 BTC wallets dumped 33,000 BTC
• Wallets with under 1 BTC were down 14,000 BTC

Do the whales know something?

Continuing the breakdown of macro strategist Michael Every's key thesis points: the reality of the physical world, technology bottlenecks, and emerging geopolitical flashpoints.

4. The Tech Bottleneck: AI, Copper, and Nuclear Power
🟠 US residents are beginning to push back against the construction of massive AI data centers due to localized spikes in electricity rates.

🟠 Upgrading the power grid to accommodate the surge in AI demand will require immense volumes of copper. One key solution being pursued is deploying Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors to power data centers directly, bypassing the public grid altogether.

5. Trump's Space Race
🟠 An executive push aims to ramp up US space launches to 1,000 per year (roughly three launches per week). The strategic objective is space dominance, lunar development, off-world resource extraction, and radically lowering the cost to orbit. This technological dominance is designed to reinforce the supremacy of the US dollar and dollar-backed stablecoins globally.

6. Escalation Risks: Ukraine and NATO
🟠 Reports suggest North Korea may deploy up to 50,000 troops to Ukraine in support of the Russian Federation.

🟠 Ukrainian drone strikes have significantly cut Russian refined petroleum exports. This pressure could prompt Moscow to escalate or initiate further mobilization rounds following parliamentary elections.

🟠 Risks remain that Russia could stage a border provocation against a Baltic NATO member state to test Alliance resolve, potentially timed alongside coordinated Iranian pressure on US interests or bases abroad.

What are your thoughts on this? Plenty of food for thought. ⌛️

🏭 The world is rapidly saying goodbye to free trade and cheap goods. The era of globalization is being replaced by hard-nosed economic statecraft, hello, Trump style, and neo-mercantilism.

This means that a state's primary goal is shifting toward reshoring manufacturing, securing control over critical resources, and bolstering national security.

🚨 Came across an insightful interview with macro strategist Michael Every. Here are the most pressing issues that will affect each of us in the coming years:

1. The New Economic Statecraft
🟠 The abandonment of globalization. The US is dismantling the very global architecture it built, pivoting toward neo-mercantilism (active state intervention to protect domestic capital). The goal of state policy is no longer maximizing corporate quarterly profits at all costs, but rather reshoring factories and strengthening national power.

🟠 Economic statecraft entails the state leveraging every available tool, tariffs, regulations, sanctions, and monetary mechanisms, to achieve geopolitical objectives.

2. The Geopolitics of Stablecoins
🟠 US Treasury nominee/official Scott Bessent has pushed an approach of buying back long-term debt by issuing short-term Treasury bills (T-bills). This helps suppress long-term interest rates and finance the budget deficit.

🟠 The Genius Act and Clarity Act are laying the groundwork for stablecoins (such as Tether and Circle) to achieve mainstream adoption. Because stablecoins must be backed by safe, highly liquid assets, their issuers will effectively be compelled to absorb trillions of dollars in US T-bills.

🟠 Stablecoins will become an instrument of the "with us or against us" doctrine. The US will present emerging economies with a choice: conduct cross-border trade using regulated US dollar digital tokens (benefiting the US financial system) or face restricted access to global markets. Stablecoins generate non-inflationary liquidity that gets absorbed within the US financial system, allowing Americans to continue securing tangible goods from around the world affordably.

3. Energy Realism and the Priority of the Physical World
🟠 For the past 40 years, the financial sector sat on a pedestal. In this emerging paradigm, digital ledger entries cannot build physical infrastructure or pump crude. Physical constraints are primary. The world is not suffering from a shortage of crude oil per se, but rather a bottleneck in refinery capacity. The US is facing a severe refining deficit.

🟠 To secure heavy crude for domestic refineries in the event of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the US has redirected up to half of Venezuela's oil output, which previously went to China, toward itself.

🟠 The US is waging full-scale economic warfare against Iran, aiming to choke off its oil exports entirely to cut off state revenue funding the military and regional proxies. As a result, inflation in Iran has surpassed 80%, and its currency is collapsing. Further US-led escalation is anticipated following the midterms.

Part 2 coming next 👇

88% of S&P 500 companies have already reported. Earnings are up 50.4%, marking the highest growth since Q2 2021.

During the dot-com bubble, stock prices were surging while earnings were dropping. That’s not the case today. Good luck shorting this market 🕡

Over the past 120 years, the world has survived world wars, pandemics, and severe crises, yet the Dow Jones always ended up higher in the end.

What's the alpha here?
• The US market only goes up in the long run—it’s inherently a bull market, so to speak. Buy the dips.

• When everyone screams that the sky is falling, it means absolutely nothing. If you have cash at moments like that, you buy.

🚨 Basically, that’s all you need to know about investing in equities. But if only it were that simple... Even with all this data at hand, people keep making the same mistakes.

The top 10 US companies now account for 40% of the S&P 500's total market cap, hovering near an all-time record.

Everyone is panicking about this, but consider that these same 10 companies generate 38% of the S&P 500's total earnings. There is no real reason to worry—everything is fine, and equities will keep climbing. On top of that, NVIDIA's latest earnings report confirmed it: all systems go, and profits are growing.

🥇 What about crypto?

Liquidity Inflow: The US Treasury has signaled its readiness to deploy $1T from the Treasury General Account (TGA) for buybacks of long-duration US Treasuries. This means fresh liquidity flowing into crypto—pure rocket fuel for us 🧪

Timing the Inflow: The current crypto rally is front-running these expectations. Officially, the Treasury’s buybacks won't kick off until September 9. The full scale and timeline will become clearer between September and November, while a major covert liquidity injection to refinance US debt can be expected starting around October 2026.

Liquidity Lag: It takes about 6 months for the crypto market to fully absorb a liquidity injection into the system. However, the effects will already start showing up in about 3 months.

Get ready, the coming year is going to be massive for those of us who know how to make money in crypto. Start picking out your Lambo 🔥

‼️ Bill Gates warns: AI can no longer be stopped, so we must reshape the economy and the rules of the game in advance.

Artificial intelligence will become either the greatest equalizer ever invented or the worst source of inequity.

AI Threats:

🟠 Mass displacement of people from the labor market, starting with office workers, followed later by manual labor

🟠 Growing inequality: technology and capital owners could capture the vast majority of AI's benefits

🟠 Cheaper cyberattacks, scams, deepfakes, propaganda, and biological threats

🟠 Risks of autonomous weapons and losing control over advanced AI systems

🟠 Children becoming dependent on AI companions, leading to a decline in independent thinking skills

What needs to be done:

⏺ Establish national and international regulatory frameworks for AI

⏺ Reach agreements on key rules among major global powers, primarily the US and China

⏺ Introduce the "Human Reserved" principle, deliberately preserving certain professions exclusively for humans

⏺ Levy taxes on AI and robots that replace human workers

⏺ Allocate these funds toward retraining programs and social safety nets

💬 Let’s venture to disagree with Bill. Personal computers and the Internet didn't leave people jobless; they became productivity-boosting tools and spawned entirely new industries.

Only those who ignore AI and fail to leverage it to reach the next level will be left on the sidelines of technological progress.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's bull-score indicator jumped from 30 to 80 in a week, signaling the start of a new bull market phase.

Waiting on it... 🔥