Clément Molin

🔴September 22
▫️Lithuania: another flight suspension in Vilnius—the third one—due to an unknown drone from Belarus and ballons.

Source: @MalcontentmentT

🔴September 8
▫️Moldova and Romania: a Geran-4 drone traverses both countries for over 500 km, violates Moldovan airspace twice, and crashes near Mihăileni.
▫️Romania: flights at Iași Airport halted due to a Russian drone.
▫️Hungary: 10 Russian diplomats declared *persona non grata* for espionage.
▫️Moldova: an Azerbaijani national working for the FSB is arrested in Chișinău; he is suspected of plotting sabotage.
▫️Romania: arrest of a Russian agent tasked with conducting reconnaissance against NATO.

🔴September 9
▫️Poland: air alert in the Podkarpackie region due to Russian missile and drone activity near the border.
▫️Poland: flights halted at Lublin and Rzeszów-Jasionka airports.
▫️Poland: Donald Tusk announces that a Russian attack on a border crossing was thwarted; the location is classified.
▫️Norway: it is revealed that a joint exercise involving Norway, the US, and the UK prevented a Russian submarine from sabotaging Svalbard's cables in April.
▫️United Kingdom: a British national is charged with aiding Russian services.

🔴September 10
▫️Romania: debris from a Russian reconnaissance drone found near a military base.
▫️Romania: Russian drone debris found on a beach.
▫️Romania: debris from an armed drone destroyed on-site.

🔴September 11
▫️Romania: three pieces of drone debris found by the coast guard and destroyed.
▫️Bulgaria: explosion at the EMCO ammunition depot in Tsareva Livada; the company cites sabotage (unattributed). 🔴 September 12
▫️ Bulgaria: The August explosion at an ammunition plant is now being investigated as an act of sabotage (attribution unknown).

🔴 September 14
▫️ Lithuania: Italian Eurofighters shoot down an armed Russian Gerbera drone coming from Belarus; it crashes near electrical infrastructure.
▫️ Poland: An armed Gerbera drone is found floating in the Baltic Sea near Rusinowo.
▫️ Moldova: Two airspace violations by Russian drones, one detected near Cioburciu.
▫️ Lithuania: Flight operations halted due to an unidentified drone coming from Belarus.
▫️ Germany: An armed drone crashes near Wunstorf Air Base (attribution unknown).
▫️ Denmark: A Russian frigate fires two flares at a Danish military helicopter.

🔴 September 15
▫️ Czech Republic: The US Department of Justice charges three additional Russian officers in connection with the arson attack on buses in Prague.
▫️ Lithuania: Three Russian officers are charged in the US over a global assassination plot, which included a target in Lithuania.

🔴 September 16
▫️ Poland: 30-minute air raid alert in the Lublin region, followed by another alert in the Podkarpackie region.
▫️ Poland: Flight operations halted in Lublin and Rzeszów.
▫️ Lithuania: According to the ANSA news agency, two Russian military aircraft violated Lithuanian airspace and were intercepted by Italian Eurofighters.
▫️ Slovakia: Fire at the MSM Group ammunition plant; an investigation has been opened (attribution unknown).

🔴 September 17
▫️ Poland: Flight operations halted in Lublin and Rzeszów.
▫️ Moldova: A Russian drone flies over Tudora for approximately two minutes. 🔴September 18
▫️Poland: flight suspensions in Lublin and Rzeszów.
▫️Moldova: a Russian cruise missile crashes and explodes.
▫️Denmark: a large drone flies over the US Embassy in Copenhagen (unattributed).
▫️Luxembourg: flight suspension at the airport due to drones (unattributed).

🔴September 19
▫️Moldova: two Russian drones violate airspace; one crashes in Ukraine near Troitske.
▫️Moldova: another violation near Palanca.

🔴September 20
▫️Moldova: two airspace violations by Russian drones, with an estimated impact point.
▫️Romania: the navy recovers three pieces of Russian drone debris drifting in the maritime corridors of the Exclusive Economic Zone.

🔴September 21
▫️Moldova: a Russian drone crosses the north of the country.
▫️Poland: radiological, chemical, and biological alert in the Lublin region due to Russian activity at the border.
▫️Lithuania: balloons from Belarus detected around Vilnius Airport for approximately 3 hours.
▫️Lithuania: flight suspension in Vilnius.

Russian 🇷🇺 sabotage campaign in Europe 🇪🇺

In recent weeks, the Russian sabotage campaign in Europe has intensified. Here is a non-exhaustive list of 50 incidents since the beginning of September:

🔴September 1
▫️Romania: debris from an armed Russian drone found by a civilian, then destroyed on-site by bomb disposal experts.
▫️Poland: fire at the WB Electronics drone factory in Skarżysko-Kamienna. Russian services are suspected.
▫️Poland: fire at JFG Composites. Russian services are suspected.

🔴September 2
▫️Poland: developments in the WB Electronics case.

🔴September 4
▫️Finland: Russian reconnaissance drone found near Porvoo (estimated location).

Tonight, both Poland 🇵🇱 and Latvia 🇱🇻 took local measures against approaching aerial threats

For the first time and despite multiple attacks earlier, Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states finally started acting against drones approaching or violating their airspace.

Recently, the Polish alert system finally started ringing before drones approached the border with Ukraine and not after. Now, fighter jets are constantly flying to ensure a rapid response in case there is an airspace violation. For Poland, the alert is now finished, but the number of similar events will increase as Russian strikes draw closer to the west of the Ukraine.

3/ Based on recent news, the battle for Kostiantynivka is in a stalemate, with fewer fighting. Most of the units moved to the area between Drujkivka and Dobropilla.

In this exact front, the Ukrainians are outnumbered 1 to 6 and Russian strikes are overwhelming.

Thanks for following this 1st thread covering the situation in the Drujkivka/Dobropilla direction. I will cover tomorrow or later Russian airstrikes in this direction, which are massive.

If you want to support my mapping work : buymeacoffee.com/clement.molin

2/ As you can see on this map, Russia is currently infiltrating near and behind the 1st defensive line.

⚪️In white are all the holes in the lines. These places are visible from space and known, this is what Russia is trying to control.

Currently, 3 CAA and 2 divisions are attacking in the area of responsability "Azov", mainly against the 1st Corps Azov of the National Guard. The priority for Russia seems to reach the high ground behind the 1st defensive line before winter to then assault Dobropilla and Drujkivka.

After breaching the incomplete line 0.5 (1 year of fight), they are now attacking the line 1. The main Ukrainian vulnerability are the weak intermediate lines, which will be easily crossed. The 2 red rectangles show the weak parts of line 1.

On this zoomed view is ongoing the most important battle rn in Ukraine. If Ru manages to cross the line before winter, whatever their losses are, they will be able to gain fire control on 1 out of 3 supply roads to Donbas and to attack key cities from behind

1/ For weeks, Russia 🇷🇺 has been attempting to push between Drujkivka and Dobropilla, two key cities protecting the southern flank of Donbas 🇺🇦. This time, they concentrate massive forces and attempt to breach the 1st defensive line.

Donbas is today a very fortified region, there are many trenches, obstacles and fortified cities. To protect against infiltrations, Ukraine 🇺🇦 set up multiple barbed wire/dragon teeths lines in 3 directions :

🔵Sloviansk-Kramatorsk
🔵Dobropilla
🔵West of Pokrovsk

However, there is a hole in these city/barbed wire lines. This hole is between Dobropilla and Drujkivka, protected only be Ukraine's New Donbas Line. In this area, Russian forces are trying to push on two axes, finding holes in the lines.

This map I made months ago is still very useful to understand today's dynamics. There are two fortress cities belt in Donbas (often reffered to one) :

⚫️Kostiantynivka-Lyman
⚫️Pokrovsk-Oleksandrivka

You can clearly see that there is a hole between both belts.

For several weeks, the Russian 🇷🇺 army has been positioning its forces for the autumn offensive, which could aim to attack the Donbas 🇺🇦 from the southwest.

In the coming days, I will publish several analyses regarding Russian strategy, FAB airstrikes, and Ukrainian defenses in the sector.

🔸There is a near-consensus among analysts that 2026 is a less favorable year for Moscow on several fronts.
🔸Russian territorial gains this year amount to just over 1,100 km²; however, one must subtract the more than 450 km² retaken by Ukrainian counter-attacks, leaving a net gain of approximately 650 km². By comparison, 1,900 km² were captured during the same period in 2024, and 3,100 km² in 2025.
🔸For the first time since late 2023, Ukrainian forces have managed to slow—or even halt—the Russian advance in certain sectors of the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions. To cope with this reality, the Kremlin is resorting to repeated falsehoods and presenting maps that depict a much more favorable situation for the Russian army in 2026.
🔸Ukraine holds the advantage in medium-range strikes, particularly within occupied territories, which complicates Russian logistics. Russia holds the advantage in deep-strike capabilities, although the damage inflicted by Ukrainian strikes (e.g., on refineries and ports) is far more costly than the damage caused by Russian strikes.
🔸In terms of manpower, Russian forces are losing slightly more troops than they are recruiting; furthermore, recruitment costs are skyrocketing, placing a significant burden on Russian public finances. A mobilization appears necessary to resume territorial advances.
On the Ukrainian side, the situation is even more critical, with an infantry shortage persisting since 2024. To address this, Kyiv has replaced human personnel with robots—specifically ground drones—for logistics and assault missions, a practice rarely seen on the Russian side.
🔸Economically and financially, both states are suffering severely. Ukraine has been suffering for five years, particularly due to the exodus of its population, Russian strikes, and mobilization. European financial support is helping to sustain the situation. On the Russian side, while the situation remained stable in recent years, it has deteriorated significantly in recent months due to a lack of funds, the loss of substantial hydrocarbon revenues, and the long-term effects of Russia's isolation.

After two very difficult years for Ukrainians in 2024 and 2025, 2026 saw a gradual stabilization of the front line, a localized regaining of the initiative in four sectors, and the development of new warfare capabilities. Russia retains the advantage in several areas—including strikes on the front line and in the rear—but is increasingly suffering the strain of a war that shows no signs of ending.

Ukrainians have nearly completed a series of defensive obstacle lines stretching from the Black Sea to the Polish border along the front, dimming the prospects of a Russian breakthrough in the coming years.

-> Consequently, Russian actions in Europe are primarily aimed at undermining military and financial support for Ukraine within the context of the war on the Eastern Front.

On the map:
🔴Russian advance from 2014 to 2025
🟠Russian advance in 2026
🔵Territories retaken by Ukrainians in 2026

Given the ongoing debate, it is necessary to revisit the current situation and the balance of power on the Ukraine 🇺🇦/Russia 🇷🇺 front :

Key takeaways from this latest attack:

🔸Moscow's air defense is highly effective; the majority of drones are shot down—which makes sense given that over 140 air defense systems are deployed there.
🔸Despite this five-layer air defense, some drones manage to get through; Ukraine is therefore employing a strategy of concentrating on and saturating a specific area.
🔸This time, Kyiv did not strike fuel depots but targeted critical sections of the refinery directly. During the June attack, the refinery sustained partial damage and only resumed operations in August.
🔸Looking at the Ukrainian strategy, the saturation phase began earlier, around September 17. Ukrainian drones cost less than air defense missiles, meaning this relentless defense comes at a high cost to Moscow.
🔸This marks the seventh attack on a Russian refinery this month and the 91st since the start of the year. This strains Russia's refining capacity and exacerbates fuel shortages in many regions.
🔸Finally, at least 10 different types of drones and missiles were used, demonstrating that Kyiv is accelerating the development of its strike capabilities—albeit lagging somewhat behind Russia, which employed this saturation strategy between 2023 and 2025 but uses it less frequently today.

This morning, the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 army struck several targets in Moscow 🇷🇺, including the refinery for the 4th time this year.

More than a thousand drones and missiles have been launched at Russia. This compilation of maps by t.me/oko_gora
shows the flight paths of Ukrainian drones in September 2026.

In total, Russia 🇷🇺 damaged or destroyed 100 gas stations in and around Kharkiv 🇺🇦 this year.

Some key roads have no more working gas stations like Kharkiv-Sumy or Kharkiv-Poltava. Those are only geolocated strikes, I added many missing ones thanks to @ShahedTracker.

This type of Russian propaganda is quite ridiculous, far from reality and the actual threat level. Here, then, is the true state of the 🇷🇺 Geran drone threat:

🔸There are currently 15 fixed launch sites for Geran drones (half of which launch the jet-powered Geran-4/5 models).
🔸The Geran-4 has a range of 850 km and is currently launched solely from fixed rails.
🔸The Geran-5 is launched from rails but also from aircraft; it resembles a missile more than a drone—similar to the low-cost S8000 Banderol missile.
🔸Finally, there is the Geran-2, a standard version derived from the Shahed-136, which reportedly has a range of 2,500 km. It can be launched from rails but also from the back of a pickup truck or lorry, making it more mobile.

-> The Baltic states, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey are the territories within range of current launch sites.
-> Maps from Rybar featuring Algeria, Mexico, India, North Korea, China, or Iran do not reflect actual risks.

Map from Russian 🇷🇺 chanel "Rybar" which shows potential targets for strikes in France 🇫🇷 by the Geran-5 drone if a launch site were established in Algeria 🇩🇿, an ally of Russia. Among the targets are nuclear power plants, refineries, airbases, and ports...