🔸There is a near-consensus among analysts that 2026 is a less favorable year for Moscow on several fronts.
🔸Russian territorial gains this year amount to just over 1,100 km²; however, one must subtract the more than 450 km² retaken by Ukrainian counter-attacks, leaving a net gain of approximately 650 km². By comparison, 1,900 km² were captured during the same period in 2024, and 3,100 km² in 2025.
🔸For the first time since late 2023, Ukrainian forces have managed to slow—or even halt—the Russian advance in certain sectors of the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions. To cope with this reality, the Kremlin is resorting to repeated falsehoods and presenting maps that depict a much more favorable situation for the Russian army in 2026.
🔸Ukraine holds the advantage in medium-range strikes, particularly within occupied territories, which complicates Russian logistics. Russia holds the advantage in deep-strike capabilities, although the damage inflicted by Ukrainian strikes (e.g., on refineries and ports) is far more costly than the damage caused by Russian strikes.
🔸In terms of manpower, Russian forces are losing slightly more troops than they are recruiting; furthermore, recruitment costs are skyrocketing, placing a significant burden on Russian public finances. A mobilization appears necessary to resume territorial advances.
On the Ukrainian side, the situation is even more critical, with an infantry shortage persisting since 2024. To address this, Kyiv has replaced human personnel with robots—specifically ground drones—for logistics and assault missions, a practice rarely seen on the Russian side.
🔸Economically and financially, both states are suffering severely. Ukraine has been suffering for five years, particularly due to the exodus of its population, Russian strikes, and mobilization. European financial support is helping to sustain the situation. On the Russian side, while the situation remained stable in recent years, it has deteriorated significantly in recent months due to a lack of funds, the loss of substantial hydrocarbon revenues, and the long-term effects of Russia's isolation.

After two very difficult years for Ukrainians in 2024 and 2025, 2026 saw a gradual stabilization of the front line, a localized regaining of the initiative in four sectors, and the development of new warfare capabilities. Russia retains the advantage in several areas—including strikes on the front line and in the rear—but is increasingly suffering the strain of a war that shows no signs of ending.

Ukrainians have nearly completed a series of defensive obstacle lines stretching from the Black Sea to the Polish border along the front, dimming the prospects of a Russian breakthrough in the coming years.

-> Consequently, Russian actions in Europe are primarily aimed at undermining military and financial support for Ukraine within the context of the war on the Eastern Front.

On the map:
🔴Russian advance from 2014 to 2025
🟠Russian advance in 2026
🔵Territories retaken by Ukrainians in 2026