Gold (XAU/USD) — short statistical snapshot

Spot is about $4,285. That is roughly 22% below the late-January 2026 high (daily high $5,597, close $5,511).
1-year: about +13% to +14%. YTD 2026: slightly down. Last month: down a few percent. 5-year: about +145%.

Stats
Daily vol (2024–2026): ~20% annualized
Average daily return: ~+0.09%
Fat left tail: crash days are larger than a normal distribution implies
Monthly vol since 2016: ~16% annualized

Regression
2016–2026 log-linear trend: ~12.2%/year, \(R^2 \approx 0.84\)
Fitted value now $3,442. Price is 24% above that long-term line.
Last-5-year log-linear trend: ~24.8%/year, \(R^2 \approx 0.88\)
Fitted value now ~$4,379. Price is almost on the 5-year line (−2%).

So: expensive vs the 10-year path, roughly fair vs the post-2021 boom path.

Levels
Support: $4,250–$4,230, then $4,000–$4,100
Resistance: $4,350–$4,450, then $4,700, then the old high zone $5,400–$5,600

Scenario probabilities (subjective)

Through end-2026
Bear $3,800–$4,100: 20%
Base $4,100–$4,600: 50%
Bull $4,600–$5,200: 25%
Spike >$5,200: 5%

End-2027
Bear $6,200: 10%

Most likely near-term path: chop in $4,200–$4,600, with a mild bias toward ~$4,500 if real yields/USD ease. Bank targets for 2027 cluster around $5,000–$5,400. Drivers from here are Fed policy, real rates, the dollar, central-bank buying, and ETF flows — not the time trend alone.