Invalidation / confirmation
Confirmation: reclaim and hold $86.1k (SMA-438), then $96.7k (Mean MVRV) as support, then the $126.2k ATH.
Invalidation of “new bull”: loss of ~$77k (True Market Mean) would recast this rally as a bounce inside a bear.
One-line model call: if the June 2026 low is the real trough, the bull lasts about three years and the base top is ~$215k in spring 2029, with a full model range of $120k to $290k.