GRAM (ex-Toncoin) — 1-week summary (Sep 19–26, 2026)Price rose from about $1.38 to ~$1.55, roughly +10% to +13% on the week. The key event was the Sep 22 unlock of ~36.6M GRAM (~$53M) from the Believers Fund — large versus daily volume. Price dipped after the unlock, held the $1.40–$1.41 area, then recovered and broke higher on Sep 26.On-chain was constructive but not explosive:Weekly transactions ~24.1M (+5.5%)
Weekly active addresses ~1.72M (+8.5%)
DEX volume jumped sharply week-over-week
DeFi TVL stayed weak at ~$54–55M (slight weekly decline)
Stablecoin liquidity on TON was softer on a 7-day basis

Read-through: network usage improved more than locked capital. The market absorbed the unlock better than the size of the event suggested. Structural supply from monthly unlocks remains a medium-term headwind.Key levels: support $1.46 then $1.40; resistance $1.58–$1.62, then $1.70.Scenario probabilities (next ~7 days)
These are judgment calls from this week’s tape, not guarantees.Base / range-to-mild-up — 45%
Trade $1.46–$1.60. Unlock leftovers get digested, activity stays decent, no strong new catalyst. Most consistent with current on-chain mix (better usage, weak TVL, ongoing issuance).
Bullish continuation — 30%
Hold above $1.50, break $1.60, stretch toward $1.68–$1.74. Needs follow-through volume, Telegram-wallet narrative staying hot, and no fresh unlock dump onto exchanges.
Bearish pullback — 25%
Lose $1.46, then $1.40, slide toward $1.35–$1.37. Trigger would be leftover unlock selling, weaker TVL/stablecoin flows, or a risk-off tape around the Sep 30 PCE print.

Near-term bias: slightly constructive while $1.46 holds. Invalidation of the bounce is a daily close back under $1.40. Next scheduled supply event to watch is the following Believers Fund batch (trackers have pointed around early October).