Gold forecast model — summary

Now: ~$4,285
Method: log-linear regression on monthly XAU/USD + scenario paths from the current price (not from the fitted line).

Two trend engines
2016–2026 log-price vs time: 12.2%/year, \(R^2 \approx 0.84\). Fitted level now $3,442, so spot is ~24% above the long-term line.
Last 5 years: 24.8%/year, \(R^2 \approx 0.88\). Fitted level now $4,379, so spot is almost fair vs the 5-year trend (−2%).

How the forecast is built
Start at the live/latest close, not the cheap long-term fitted value.
Base path** uses a blended ~11–12% drift (closer to the long-term rate than the 5-year blow-off).
Bull / bear** are knotted scenario paths, not pure exponentials.
The shaded band is an 80% volatility cone using 4.5–5% monthly vol.
Bank targets (roughly $4,500–$5,400 into 2027) are used as a sanity check, not as the model itself.

Point forecasts
End-2026 base: $4,480 (bear $3,980 / bull $4,900)
Mid-2027 base: $4,820
End-2027 base: $5,150 (bear $4,050 / bull $5,800)

Probabilities
End-2026: bear 20% / base 50% / bull 25% / spike 5%
End-2027: $6,200 10%

Bottom line: most likely path is a grind toward $4,450–$4,500 by year-end 2026 and ~$5,150 by end-2027, not a fast return to $5,500 and not a lasting break below $4,000. Main swing factors: real yields, the dollar, Fed policy, central-bank buying, ETF flows.