🏜️ Tarim mummies were isolated locals — Tocharian came from the north

Ancient DNA splits Xinjiang into two stories. In the Tarim Basin (south), the earliest Bronze Age people (~2100–1700 BC, n=13) formed a genetically isolated local population, best modeled as mostly Ancient North Eurasian with a smaller ancient Northeast Asian component — and no detectable Afanasievo or BMAC ancestry.

By contrast, in the Dzungarian Basin (north) the Early Bronze Age communities show strong Afanasievo steppe ancestry mixed with locals. That northern steppe profile matches the expected vector for Tocharian, the early Indo-European language later attested in Xinjiang.

Takeaway: The famous Tarim mummies were not steppe migrants and likely not Tocharian speakers. Tocharian most plausibly arrived via Afanasievo-derived groups in Dzungaria, while the Tarim people represent a distinct local lineage.

Source: Zhang et al., 2021. The genomic origins of the Bronze Age Tarim Basin mummies.