Threading on the Edge

👻 Threading Daily — 07.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- US and Iran discussing terms for a 45-day ceasefire
- Oil gains as Trump sets a new deadline for Iran
- M2 Money Supply has hit a new ATH of $22.7T
- ECB's Panetta: leading indicators show slowdown
- Trump floats replacing AG Bondi
- Gulf states eye new oil routes around Hormuz
- Europe's median woman now aged 46
- Tesla stock slides 2.3% on JPMorgan EPS cut

🔖Crypto News
- $BTC reclaims $69K
- $273M of shorts rekt across crypto markets
- James Wynn got liquidated on HL, from $100M to $900
- Strategy bought 4,871 $BTC for ~$329.9M
- BlackRock to launch the iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF, ticker $IQQ
- $12T Charles Schwab is launching Schwab Crypto
- Grayscale files S-1 amendment for its Bittensor ($TAO) trust
- Circle minted ~3.25B USDC on Solana last week
- Circle announced the quantum-resistant for its L1 Arc
- ETH Fdn is approaching 70,000 ETH staked
- Solana Fnd launches STRIDE & SIRN, 24/7 threat monitoring
- Spot CEX volume hit $986B in March
- Phantom wallet outage affecting balance & token prices
- Aave risk manager Chaos Labs exits amid governance dispute
- Polymarket unveils plans for trading engine overhaul

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Why DeFi Insurance Can't Scale?
- Why KakaoPay-x402 is Huge for Korea
- Reflections on the Drift Protocol Exploit

🔖Raises
- GoSats (Series A) $5M, Bitcoin rewards platform < Konvoy, Y Combinator, Taisu

🔖Early Projects
- @TeamOratomic, Bio: Building the world's first fault-tolerant quantum computers oratomic.com
- @deGenAiBase, Bio: Onchain AI art generator. Pennies per image. No subscriptions. Built on Base. degenai.art
- @bettermoney_co, Bio: Stablecoin infrastructure built for the next era of money. bettermoney.com

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

shorting $XAU

- 4H local high got swept
- retest at 4652
- looks like its heading for next low at 4500

entry 4652
sl 4667
tp1 4600

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2041353072337981714

what are the best x accounts to follow as an aspiring macro trader?

https://x.com/emilylai/status/2040088142514921674

i am pretty disappointed in the team's decision, basically admitting to rigging their airdrop allocation

i begin to question and will share my analysis below.

@edgeX_exchange was already generating $15–20M/month in fees

they didnt have to do this 👇

X: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2040030060204445954

FULL article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/edgex-just-admitted-that-they-rigged

crime always win

will release a thread on $EDGE later on all the crimes committed

nonetheless this should go higher

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2039987416950550678

👻 Threading Daily — 03.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Gold -3%, silver -5% on rates spike
- Oil rises 7% to $107, futures fall
- Trump: will hit Iran hard in next 2-3 weeks
- Iran warns of total response
- EU diesel futures hit $200 on limited supply
- China: root cause of Hormuz crisis is US policy
- China tech firms: weakest profit growth in 3yrs
- Alphabet eyes OpenRouter at $1.3B valuation
- Google introduces Gemma 4

🔖Crypto News
- “Bitcoin is a buying opportunity”, Lyn Alden on CNBC
- Loracle.hl is selling 450K $HYPE ($15.98M)
- YEET foils exploit
- Australia bans prediction market gambling ads
- Bithumb delays IPO until after 2028
- Circle Wrapped Bitcoin (cirBTC) coming soon
- Perp DEX fees down 82% from peak
- Drift exploited for $213m, N. Korea suspected
- Drift hack involved takeover of admin keys
- Circle slammed for slow response to Drift hack
- Exploiter swapped alts for ETH, Fartcoin affected
- Drift exploit fallout spreads to 20 protocols
- CZ's book "Freedom of Money" is released next week

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- AI is Effectively Sabotaging You — Eli5
- You Are Living in Plato's Cave: Power, Consciousness, and the Collapse of the Global Financial Order — arndxt
- Stablecoin Issuance Market: Four Business Models Reshaping the Market — Tiger Research

🔖Raises
- Kulipa (Seed) $6.2M, Payment platform for non-custodial wallets < 1kx, Flourish, Fabric, White Star
- PumpCA (Pre-Seed) $1M, Memecoin launchpad platform < PumpFun, Foundation Capital, RadioSolace
- Pixie Chess (Seed) $5.2M, Web3 chess game < Paradigm, Seed Club...

🔖Early Projects
- @icme_xyz, Bio: Tokenizing startup equity. Backed by @yzilabs SFicme.xyz
- @TrySweepFinance, Bio: Flexible multi-asset DEX aggregator that makes managing your portfolio easier than ever before. Swap multiple assets into one with just a few clicks trysweep.finance

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

You Are Living in Plato's Cave: Power, Consciousness, and the Collapse of the Global Financial Order

Today I’m going to show you not just what is happening but why it cannot stop.

I want to go deeper. Because the more I’ve studied this conflict, the answer, I finally realized, is much older than any of those frameworks.

X: https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2039645937564622947

FULL Article: https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/you-are-living-in-platos-cave-power

👻 Threading Daily — 02.04.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Trump says war could end in 3 weeks
- Stocks surge, oil & gas prices crash
- Trump & Rubio question value of NATO
- Israel ends all military buys from France
- Buffett waiting for a larger downside move
- Iran threatens Microsoft, Google, Oracle
- Australia PM urges less fuel usage
- Australia threatens to sue Meta, Google, TikTok
- Hungarian opposition widens lead vs Orban
- Robotaxi outage strands China passengers
- Oracle lays off 30k workers amid stress

🔖Crypto News
- BTC still has worst Q1 since 2018, down 24%
- BTC drawdown mild this cycle: Fidelity
- Quantum resistant coins rise on Google BTC risk
- CFTC warns prediction market insiders
- FBI charges 10 for crypto wash trading
- Malta challenges EU on crypto rules
- HK stablecoins delayed on poor KYC
- SUI is now live on Solana
- Drift exploited for $200M

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The Rise of Crypto Neobanks — Privy
- The (Leaked) Claude Code 12-Harness Architecture, Explained for Non-Engineer — Eli5

🔖Raises
- Kulipa (Seed) $6.2M, Payment platform for non-custodial wallets < 1kx, Flourish, Fabric, White Star

🔖Early Projects
- @markit_markets, Bio: The sportsbook model, rebuilt onchain. Be the Book. Make your Mark.
Prediction markets on Base. markit.market
- @Zylo_Ecosystem, Bio: One user. Many contexts.
Zylo is an economic layer connecting games, trading, and digital activity into one system of progress. zylo.io

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

🚨 BREAKING: You can now run a Bloomberg Terminal for FREE.

The closest open-source alternative that exists.
No $24,000 subscription. No API costs. 100% local on your machine.

Bookmark this. Install it right now. Takes ten minutes.

https://x.com/RohOnChain/status/2039338468065849589

👻 Threading Daily —31.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Dow enters correction, -10% from high
- S&P 500 posts fifth straight loss week
- UAE confiscates $565B of Iranian assets
- Cuba is next: Trump
- Russian tanker reaches Cuba post-blockade
- Anthropic model scares cybersecurity stocks

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto stocks down 5-10% in Nasdaq rout
- BTC recovers above $67K, shows relative strength
- ETH foundation stakes record amount of ETH
- Retail investors are largest cohort selling BTC
- Strategy pauses BTC buys after 13-week streak
- Oil OI tops SOL on Hyperliquid
- WLD continues to fall after OTC sales
- ECB criticises hidden centralisation in DeFi
- FTX to repay $2.2B to creditors March 31
- Aave V4 is officially live on Ethereum
- Aster restructures tokenomics,
- P2P.me bets treasury on Polymarket
- Kalshi set to offer levered prediction betting

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Building Crypto Neobanks with Privy
- Enabling the future of onchain markets: The role of predictability — a16z

🔖Raises
- World (OTC) $65M, Global identity and financial network
- Midas (Series A) $50M, Asset tokenization platform < Creandum, Coinbase, Framework, Franklin
- Valinor (Seed) $25M, Blockchain-based private lending company < Castle, Maven 11...

🔖Early Projects
- @bifrost_ai, Bio: Data Generation Engines for AI & Robotics
- @JuiceLaunch, Bio: Stop Watching Charts. Start Trading Smart.
Liquidity Protocol with Automated Trading Agents & Flywheel Tools on Solana. juiceeverything.com
- @binaryloops, Bio: Trade the Binary on @Polymarket waitlist.binloops.xyz

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

Design websites that should be illegal to know:

https://x.com/aligrids/status/2038488138708914272?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

👻 Threading Daily — 30.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Stocks on course for 4th week below 20w MA
- Japan 10yr bond yield at highest since 1999
- ECB: years to restore damage from Iran war
- Trump pauses Iran energy strikes for 10 days
- Iran hardliners ramp up calls for nuclear bomb
- Primorsk oil port resumes ops after Ukraine hit
- Cyclone cuts output at key LNG ports in Australia
- US judge blocks Pentagon Anthropic ban

🔖Crypto News
- BTC falls below recent support levels
- Whales bought 61K BTC over the last month
- Mara sells 15k BTC, miners now below breakeven
- ETH ICO participant offloads $23M
- WHITEWHALE drops 55% after CTO walks
- Crypto collateral accepted for US housing loans
- Brazil passes law to use seized Bitcoin
- Tether hires KPMG for first-ever audit
- USDT0 is snow live on Tempo chain
- Canton integrates with LayerZero
- Umbra public mainnet is now live
- OKX delays IPO until it can deliver strong returns
- Trust Wallet launches AI agents

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- What Is Financial Freedom? — Eli5
- Five Distinct Branches of Modern Crypto — mert
- $CC Tokenomics: The Institutional Powerhouse — sawinyh

🔖Raises
- Megapot (Pre-Seed) $5M, Jackpots on Base < Dragonfly, Coinbase, Bankless...

🔖Early Projects
- @deeptuneai, Bio: Training gyms for agents deeptune.com
- @main_st_finance, Bio: Institutional Yield for Everyone - Offering the best yield on CME Options Box Spreads to DeFi with $msY mainstreet.finance
- @browser_use, Bio: The easiest way to automate the web. browser-use.com

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

EdgeX at $700M: The Cheapest Perp DEX in the Sector Or a Value Trap?

Three valuation methods, one year of volume data, Polymarket odds, and what I actually think the market is missing.

TGE is March 31. 4 days from now.

I’ve spent the last week stress-testing every number I could find on EdgeX. Here’s what I found and why I think the market has mispriced this TGE in a very specific, exploitable way.

Let me be direct about something before we get into the numbers: I did not come into this analysis with a bull thesis

I came in the week after Backpack’s TGE vaporized 90% of its opening valuation in 48 hours, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 11, and with a healthy suspicion that pre-market pricing on TGE tokens is almost always wrong in at least one direction.

What I found with EdgeX surprised me. Because the gap between what the on-chain data shows and what Polymarket odds imply is larger than any TGE mispricing I’ve seen in the last 18 months.

And when I find a gap that large, there are usually opportunities and I want to understand it precisely before deciding whether it’s opportunity or trap.
This article is my written attempt to do that analysis rigorously. I’ll walk through the volume history, the peer valuation framework, three independent valuation methods, the Polymarket odds structure, and finally — my own read on where the alpha actually sits and what I think the market is getting wrong.

Let’s get into it.

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2037907645362020511

I took Karpathy's Autoresearch concept and adapted it into AutoPredict: a research framework for evaluating, backtesting, and iteratively improving prediction market trading agents

AutoPredict evaluates agents on
- forecast quality
- calibration
- execution (slippage, liquidity, and fills)
- drawdown and risk adjusted returns

It also supports domain specialists for weather, finance, and politics under a shared evaluation harness

This framework is NOT for building agents but for agent improvement via a evaluation + mutation + selection loop

https://x.com/howdymerry/status/2037683950085378240

Every Trading Strategy Explained in 6 Minutes

https://x.com/SoulzBTC/status/2037156860269137999

According to Ray Dalio, the easiest way to adjust for risk is to seek uncorrelated returns.

Ray's made billions from a simple idea.

Here's how to do it in a few lines of Python code:

https://x.com/quantscience_/status/2037141079540023702

👻 Threading Daily — 27.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Futures falls as Iran appears to reject deal
- US mortgage rates hit 5-month high
- Trump-Xi summit set for May 14-15
- Trump to ‘unleash hell’ if no deal
- US looking at different invasion options
- Australia’s fuel crisis worsens
- US Postal Service adds fuel surcharge
- Meta, Google lose landmark addiction trial

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto sinks as US-Iran deal seems less likely
- BitMine debuts ETH staking platform
- Morgan Stanley BTC ETF launch imminent
- Whop integrates with Tether to offer 6% yield
- Bhutan offloads $37m BTC
- S. Korea saw $60b crypto outflow in H2 2025
- Singapore to test RLUSD trade settlements
- Tokenisation to unlock $17b/yr for Australia: RBA
- UK bans crypto political donations
- Franklin Templeton to offer tokenised ETFs
- Visa takes on Canton Super Validator role
- Binance updates market-making rules
- Tether Gold (XAU₮) now listed on BNB Chain
- Circle unfreezes 1 of 16 blacklisted wallets
- HyperEVM is now fully supported in MetaMask
- Tradexyz hints at large new product launch

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- AI Acceleration Debate (E/acc vs D/acc): Vitalik vs Beff Jezos
- Canton + LayerZero: The $95B Bridge to Wall Street

🔖Raises
- Tazapay (Series B1), Provide cross-border payment solutions < Circle, Coinbase, CMT
- XFX (Series A) $17M, Cross border settlement infrastructure < Castle Island, Coinbase, Haun
- Verse8 (Seed) $5M, AI native game generator < Story, NEXPACE

🔖Early Projects
- @goo_economy, Bio: Open-sourced agentic financial layer protocol. Fund the AI overlord that replaces you. Initiated by @Hertzflow_xyz goo.hertzflow.xyz
- @PlayBabylon, Bio: The arena where humans and agents compete, learn, and earn in continuous prediction games — all powered by real, evolving AI characters. babylon.market

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

👻 Threading Daily — 26.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Oil drops sharply on ceasefire optimism
- US/Israel planning 2-3 more war weeks
- Iran rejects ceasefire, wants end to war
- 82nd Airborne heads to Middle East
- Iran imposing Hormuz transit fees
- US ‘insolvent’ per Treasury report
- Trump approval at 36%, 4-year low
- MSFT below 200D MA, first since 2008
- Claude AI launches autonomous Auto Mode

🔖Crypto News
- BTC bottomed, targets $150K: Bernstein
- Top Gainers: SIREN, TAO, RENDER, SKY, M
- TAO up another 15% on subnet growth
- Tether signs Big Four for first full audit
- Clarity Act will limit stablecoin yields
- Circle falls 20%, Coinbase stock drops 10%
- Binance to add equity perps Mar 26
- NYSE to partner with Securitize
- Solana leads payments/tokenization: Samani
- BlackRock expects crypto fees to grow $500m
- Robinhood greenlights $1.5B share buyback
- Ledger completes $50m share sale

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- RWAs Are Just Built Different
- The Best Content Engine in the AI Age
- Market Maker Red Flags and Guidelines for Crypto Projects and Users

🔖Raises
- Kairos (Seed) $2.4M, Interest rate prediction market < 6MV, Lattice, Advancit...
- Payy (Seed) $6M, Privacy-enabled, EVM L2 < FirstMark, Robot, DBA
- Startale Labs (Series A) $63M, Web3 infrastructure and public goods < Sony, SBI

🔖Early Projects
- @NewsworthyCLI, Bio: The news agents trust. Powered by World ID.
- @moonlake, Bio: building frontier world models moonlakeai.com
- @reactorworld, Bio: Building the missing layer for world models. reactor.inc

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

Karpathy's AutoResearch is changing how campaigns get optimized and most marketers haven´t heard of it yet.

Ole Lehmann tested it on landing page copy, 56% → 92% pass rate overnight.

here´s how it works for marketing / skills 🧵

https://x.com/shannholmberg/status/2036461256006357409

👻 Threading Daily — 24.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- US 20y above 5%, mortgage rates above 7%
- US housing demand down -18% MoM
- Market whipsaws as Trump pauses Iran strikes
- Gold erased $7T in value since war began
- Vietnam, Bangladesh, Philippines face oil crisis
- Airlines warn jet fuel could run dry in weeks
- LaGuardia closed after plane-truck collision
- Iran claims no talks taking place
- Iran fires long range ballistic missile

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto continues to outperform stocks & gold
- BTC falls below $68K then rebounds on Iran pause
- Hyperliquid active trader ATH, oil trading surges
- Mt. Gox moves 500 BTC, Strategy buys $75m
- SOL Fnd: Crypto gaming is dead
- NYSE removes crypto ETF options caps
- Bithumb seeks CEO reappointment
- Resolv depegs 74% after $25M exploit
- Circle, Coinbase top stablecoin proxies: Bernstein
- CoinDCX co-founders arrested in India
- Backpack $BP TGE on Solana

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Hyperliquid's 2025 Annual Report
- Privacy on Solana Report
- RWAs: a Bridge, Not the Destination

🔖Raises
- PeakAI (Seed) $2M, AI-driven creator incentive platform < Cognitent, CatcherVC, PAKA...

🔖Early Projects
- @mpp, Bio: An open standard for machine payments, co-authored by @tempo and @stripe. MPP is designed to be extensible and agnostic to any payment method. mpp.dev
- @freeportmrkts, Bio: Tradable news feed. Backed by @ycombinator @allianceDAO
- @p0, Bio: Infrastructure for intelligence on the web. Start here → docs.parallel.ai

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo