Threading on the Edge

👻 Threading Daily — 23.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Oil spikes to $119 then retreats
- US M2 hits $22.5T, household net worth hits ATH
- Iran charging fee for safe Hormuz passage
- Fuel shortage fears rattle airlines
- Cuba barred from taking Russian oil
- Tech execs charged with smuggling Nvidia chips
- Nvidia may pay employees in AI tokens
- Google launches new AI studio tools
- Bezos plans $100b AI manufacturing fund

🔖Crypto News
- Tokenized equities MC hit $1.5b
- DDC buys 200 BTC, Strive buys 317 BTC
- Morgan Stanley moves forward with BTC ETF
- Amundi intros $100m tokenized fund on ETH
- S. Korea could scrap upcoming 22% crypto tax
- Kentucky crypto bill could outlaw self custody
- Zenith links Canton, ETH through atomic swaps
- Gemini hit with investor lawsuit over strategy shift
- Animoca invests in AVAX
- KAST teases more Pudgy collab
- Myriad raises seed round investment
- Kalshi raises $1b+ at $22b valuation

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Myths About Passkeys — gakonst
- RWA 2026 - What's Real vs What's Happened — Eli5

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @wefi_official, Bio: The first fully compliant on-chain deobanking platform that runs on stablecoins. wefi.co
- @roboforce_ai, Bio: RoboForce is building the future of Physical AI — scalable, deployable Robo-Labor designed for demanding industrial environments. roboforce.ai

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

the $DXY strengthening and $XAU during this conflict is one of those things thats paradoxical

in this post i will share my views on both

everyone's first instinct is war is bad therefore dollar should weaken, i think that framing is very wrong.

the dollar strengthens because three completely separate forces hitting simultaneously

let me walk through how I actually think about this

the DXY, or U.S. Dollar Index, is a real-time chart that tracks the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major world currencies.

these include:

Euro (EUR) – ~57.6% weight
Japanese Yen (JPY) – ~13.6%
British Pound (GBP) – ~11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) – ~9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK) – ~4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) – ~3.6%

1) USD being a safe haven asset

geopolitical shock → investors want the most liquid defensive asset → that's still the dollar regardless of what you think about America's long term fiscal position

2) the oil mechanism is the one that's more interesting and more durable
crude spikes because Hormuz disruption risk and Iranian supply is directly threatened.

what most miss is that,higher oil doesn't hurt everyone equally. the US is now energy resilient in a way it wasn't in 1973 or even 2008. Europe imports 60%+ of its energy. Japan imports 75%+ of its oil through Hormuz specifically. the Japanese PM already said closure exhausts reserves in 8-9 months

so when oil spikes the euro gets hammered. the yen gets hammered. and DXY is heavily weighted toward exactly those two currencies

DXY rising means euro and yen are weaker faster a brutal story for dollar alternatives right now

3) then the Fed mechanism compounds everything

oil up → inflation risk reprices higher → markets cut Fed rate cut expectations → US yields stay firm or rise → dollar becomes more attractive on a yield differential basis

war → oil → inflation → fewer cuts → yields → dollar. that's the chain i think we are trading

gold and dollar both rising simultaneously is the thing that confuses people most. normally they're inversely correlated. but in this specific context, geopolitical fear PLUS inflation fear simultaneously, both get bid at the same time. gold gets the fear bid. dollar gets the yield and liquidity bid. they can coexist when the driver is this specific combination

the reversal path is only de-escalation

de-escalation → oil cools → inflation fear eases → Fed cuts reprice back in → euro/yen recover → DXY softens → risk assets breathe

however, de-escalation requires both sides to want it. and as I've mentioned before the Iranian payoff matrix doesn't maximize survival. it values martyrdom. the party that needs de-escalation most is the one with the least leverage to demand it

which means this macro threat, dollar bid, oil elevated, risk assets under pressure, could persist longer than the market is currently pricing

i keep seeing the market price in hope of de-escalation, and each time the dollar gives back some of its gains, and then the conflict re-escalates and the whole chain reasserts itself.

that stop-start pattern is itself a tradeable signal if you understand the underlying game theory

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2035685544173404635

https://threadingontheedge.substack.com/p/the-dollar-gold-paradox

The 12-Layer Agentic Commerce Ecosystem Stack

https://x.com/Eli5defi/status/2035003899653103635

Sites on the internet for design inspiration.

https://x.com/UiSavior/status/2035071958950502556

very inspiration piece.

now we know why $PENGU have the strongest community, because of the ethos of ONE person.

community strength superceeds everything

https://x.com/foxypenguinape/status/2034990037436440928

👻 Threading Daily — 20.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Iran damaged world’s largest LNG facility: Qatar
- Oil spikes after Israel hits Iran’s gas field
- Gold plunges amid dollar strength
- Stocks sink on hot PPI, energy attacks
- EU gas reserves running low
- KSA revives 50% oil exports via Hormuz bypass
- China ramps up scrutiny of Meta AI deal
- Meta shuts down Metaverse division

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto dumps amid cautious Fed, hot PPI
- First official S&P 500 perp launched on HYPE
- Whales dominate exchange inflows
- Bhutan moves $72m BTC
- SEC approves Nasdaq tokenised equity pilot
- UK lawmakers urge ban on crypto political donation
- Algorand Foundation cuts 25% workforce
- Visa intros tool for AI bot payments
- Cryptocom lays off 12% staff for AI
- FTX to pay creditors $2.2b from March 31
- Kraken pauses IPO plans
- Polymarket opens ‘The Situation Room’ bar in DC
- Tempo by Stripe goes live
- KATANA launches at $100m FDV

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- Top 5 Most Interesting Tokenized Assets — coingecko
- The Progress Trap — Eli5
- Follow Your Heart: The Panic Is Real, The Opportunity Is Bigger — yq_acc

🔖Raises
- Avalanche (Strategic), Decentralized blockchain < Animoca
- Myriad (Seed), Prediction Markets < MoonPay, Bubblemaps...
- Kalshi $1B, Prediction Market < Coatue Mgmt
- Bluesky (Series B) $100M, Decentralized social network < Bain, Alumni, True...

🔖Early Projects
- @subnetatlas, Bio: Mapping the decentralized AI economy. Explore every Bittensor subnet, rankings, and analytics. subnetatlas.com
- @TradeOnStrat, Bio: One Account. Every Market On Earth. strat.trade
- @agent0lab, Bio: A​gent0 is an AI lab researching game theory in agent networks. We co-authored ERC-8004 and build its SDK. Join TG t.me/agent0kitchen

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

claude taught itself how to trade

https://x.com/nunchi/status/2034666333741220306

How to 10x your Claude Skills (using Karpathy's autoresearch method)

https://x.com/itsolelehmann/status/2033919415771713715

Google vibe design is here

https://x.com/GoogleLabs/status/2034337527293944228

Really interesting

Poker bot farm

https://x.com/bitcoin_teddy/status/2034396931515187401?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

I made a "should I be trading?" dashboard.

Scores the market across 5 pillars:
- volatility (put/call ratio, vix, positioning)
- trend (spx vs 20d, 50d, 200d ma's)
- breadth (advancing/declining, nas highs/lows)
- momentum (sector leaders, laggards, % participation)
- macro (fomc, rates, geopolitics)

Each is weighted, combined, and averaged to give me a score for the current environment.

Basically a yes, no, or stay small.

Sometimes I just need someone (or something) to remind me to stay out.

https://x.com/investingluc/status/2034395672775131377?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

👻 Threading Daily — 19.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Trump slams allies that rejected Iran support
- US to ease Venezuela sanctions to unlock oil
- Russia providing drone tech to Iran
- China to tap oil stockpiles to offset Iran crisis
- EU to delay increase in bank capital requirements
- Kim Jong Un wins elections with 99.93% votes
- Nvidia restarting H200 production in China

🔖Crypto News
- Most crypto not securities: SEC, CFTC
- Crypto steady with rate decisions incoming
- Citi drops ETH & BTC price targets
- Vitalik intros new fast confirmation rule for ETH
- Whale builds $50m ZRO position
- ASTER launches privacy mainnet
- Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets hit ATH $1.43b OI
- Vietnam to ban overseas crypto trading
- Mastercard to acquire BVNK for up to $1.8b
- Tally ETH governance solution shuts down
- CFTC issues no action letter for Phantom
- GSR expands into token lifecycle management
- Azuki launches TCG
- Arizona AG charges Kalshi with illegal betting

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- The End of the Office — Andrew Yang
- What 81,000 people want from AI — Anthropic
- The internet ruined customer service. AI could save it — a16z

🔖Raises
- N/A

🔖Early Projects
- @MMT_Official_, Bio: Leverage Liquidity. Don't be Liquidity. mmt.gg
- @apyx_fi, Bio: Enhanced Digital Credit Yield, Onchain | On Track to Become the Largest Holder of $STRC | linktr.ee/apyx_fi
- @MMT_Official_, Bio: Leverage Liquidity. Don't be Liquidity. mmt.gg

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

Tokens on Solana (new X)

https://x.com/tokens

Tally shuts down

https://x.com/tallyxyz/status/2033914203837280737?s=46&t=hr2fbvcHJGpvp_SbDstdzg

👻 Threading Daily — 18.03.2026 👻

🔖Macro
- Dollar resurgent on bullish bets
- Oil stays near $100 as Iran strikes oil hubs
- Russian oil exports benefitting from Iran war
- Treasury buys back ATH $15b debt
- Private credit defaults hit ATH in 2025: Fitch
- Nvidia projects $1T AI chip revenue over 2 years
- Okara launches AI CMO

🔖Crypto News
- Crypto rally continues in massive short squeeze
- ETH & BTC at 6 week high
- PIPPIN suddenly drops 50%
- Metaplanet to raise $531m to buy BTC
- GSR expands eco with $57M double acquisition
- Argentina blocks Polymarket nationwide
- PayPal expands stablecoins to 70 countries
- Privy launches DeFi Vault integration
- Tether teases AI break-through this week
- StanChart to collab with Hana Financial on crypto
- Binance issues rebuttal over Iran links
- OpenSea delays SEA token launch
- Aster chain is now live
- CHIP announces airdrop allocations
- Messari CEO steps down amid layoffs in AI pivot
- Kalshi offers $1b prize for March Madness

🔖Alpha/Good Reads
- 100+ signals , 38 indicators, 80% win rate hit — noisyb0y1
- Decentralized AI: From "Impossible" to "Investable" — jbrukh

🔖Raises
- Derivio $6M, Decentralized structured derivatives ecosystem < YZi, CMT, Signum, UOB, Big Brain...
- TransFi (Series A) $14.2M, Cross-border payment platform < Turing Finance

🔖Early Projects
- @cryptio_co, Bio: Back-Office OS for regulated enterprises. Setting the Standard for Crypto Financial Integrity – (SOC 1 Type 2, SOC 2 Type 2).
- @apyx_fi, Bio: Onchain Digital Credit Yield | On Track to Become the Largest Holder of $STRC | linktr.ee/apyx_fi

✅Follow for alpha → https://twitter.com/arndxt_xo

i thought this was a great research by @thelearningpill on the development and growth on stablecoins. stablecoin becomes an entirely a new industry on its own.

i believe that once money learns to move instantly 24/7 across borders, it wont go back to 3-day wire transfers

because habits are the most durable moat in financial services

stablecoins didn't convince people to learn crypto

they embedded themselves into interfaces people already trusted:
- PayPal 434M users
- Telegram 800M users
- Nubank 127M
- Cash App 57M

it used a similar model to how TCP/IP go to market, by becoming invisible inside things people already used and going forward i believe to scale, this will be have to be the winning playbook for many other crypto products.

some key insights:
- 70 countries to 106 countries. non-US users up 422% year over year. Latin America. Africa. Southeast Asia leading adoption
- enterprise acceleration at 400% YoY
- in a country with 30% annual currency devaluation a dollar-pegged stablecoin isn't incrementally better than local banking

https://x.com/arndxt_xo/status/2034085957239246936