The European sovereign debt crisis has returned from its long holiday. The OAT-Bund 10-year spread hit the widest since 2012, while the French 2-year spread to Germany just recorded the biggest move since 2012. French CDS have doubled in a month. Contagion arrived on schedule: the Italy-Germany 2-year spread nearly doubled, the largest daily jump since 2020. The arithmetic behind the panic is unglamorous. France's average interest cost is migrating from 2% toward 3%, and Paris needs a primary surplus of +1% to stabilise its debt — a figure the Fifth Republic has achieved roughly as often as it has formed a lasting government.