Post #3180
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Last month everyone with a modicum of common sense suggested the four-sigma August miracle would not survive its revision. It took one cycle. September payrolls printed 29,000 — below every estimate on the Street — while August was cut from 162,000 to 133,000 and July revised from +21,000 all the way to minus 10,000. The month Wall Street EYIs celebrated as proof of resilience has quietly become a contraction. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, with 78,000 more people out of work, and average hourly earnings managed just 0.1%, trimming annual wage growth to 3.0% — comfortably below the 4.6% inflation consumers expect.