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The Macro Butler The Macro Butler @themacrobutlersubstack · 449 subscribers
Post #3163 63
Core PCE came in at 3.0% year-on-year against 3.3% expected, and 0.2% on the month — a splendid miss, achieved largely by spreadsheet. The BEA has retroactively revised its methodology back to Q1 2021, shaving roughly 18 basis points off the annual pace via three changes: portfolio management services switched to a quantity-based series, computer software to a new composite deflator, and legal services to a revised measure after the old CPI approach proved unreliable. Inflation did not fall; the ruler shortened. Headline PCE printed 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually against 3.7% expected. Now the part nobody revised: personal spending surged 0.9% while income rose just 0.2%, the slowest since April 2022, and the savings rate collapsed to 4.1% from 4.6% — the lowest since November 2022. Americans are funding record spending out of a shrinking cushion.
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