Rybar in English

📝Chronicles of the special military operation📝
for September 20, 2026

🧨Russian forces struck at logistics and military infrastructure of so-called Ukraine. According to the Defense Ministry, they hit a FIRE POINT company warehouse in Boyarka with components and launch accelerators for long-range UAVs, a Novaya Pochta logistics center near Odesa, and several cargo ships in Odesa port. Separately, crossings were targeted: Geran-4 crews struck a new highway bridge in the Mayaky area. Additionally, strikes were delivered against warehouse complexes in Kyiv Region and agrochemical facilities in Rivne Region.

Ukrainian formations attempted a mass attack on the Moscow Region. Over the course of a day, record 1,951 drones and eight Flamingo cruise missiles were shot down over Russian regions. Nevertheless, the Moscow refinery and Sadovod market came under fire. In Belgorod Region, Borisovskiy and Grayvoronskiy districts lost power, in Zaporizhia Region a polling station in a school in Pryshyb settlement was destroyed, and in Kherson Region a minor was killed in Sofiyivka.

➡️On the Burluk direction, units of the "North" grouping are tightening the "cauldron" east of Volchansk, "carving out" AFU-controlled territory. Two more settlements have been announced as liberated. Airstrikes and artillery strikes continue against enemy-controlled territory.

➡️On the Kupiansk direction, the enemy attacks in the Zapadne area, attempting to cut the Russian Armed Forces bridgehead west of the Oskil. Russian forces improve their tactical position in Kovsharove and Novoosynove.

➡️On the Slavyansk direction, Russian Armed Forces units work against enemy positions in Slavyansk and Nikolayevka. In Ray-Aleksandrovka, the AFU conducts counterattacks through a strongpoint west of the village ruins.

➡️On the East Zaporizhia direction, small group battles continue west of Rozhdestvensky, the enemy continues attempts to slow the advance of Russian Armed Forces units. The Defense Ministry announced the liberation of Zelena Dibrova.

📎High-resolution maps:

🔸Situation in the special military operation zone (ru; en)

🔸Burluk direction (ru; en)

🔸Kupiansk direction (ru; en)

🔸Slavyansk direction (ru; en)

🔸East Zaporizhia direction (ru; en)

📍 Online maps available by subscription at map.rybar.ru

#digest #DNR #map #LNR #Moscow #Odesa #Russia #Ukraine
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📝Rybar's Main Points📝
digest of materials for September 20

The enemy's nighttime attempt to disrupt the elections did not succeed. But the authorities' reaction was there, and this time truly in the manner that was desired.

❗️Read more about these and other topics in our digest.

➡️Rybar @rybar — we discuss complex matters simply.

The main resource of our think tank.
The most important and interesting materials.

▪️Chronicles of the SMO
▪️RYBAR EXPLAINS: Japan removes pacifist shackles
▪️Mikhail Tikhonravov: the path to the stars
▪️The largest raid on Moscow
▪️Trust grows from honesty
▪️Moscow raid: operation details
▪️Aviation as a mirror of sovereignty
▪️How to spoil a release with one accent
▪️Russia — a forge of personnel for Ethiopia
▪️Steel furnaces go out

➡️ASIANBAR @rybar_Pacific

Americans and Chinese are dividing the world — both sides' ambitions in AI continue to grow. Meanwhile, a meeting between Xi and Trump will take place very soon. Australians, for their part, have spotted a threat not only in China but also in Indonesia.

➡️AMERICABAR @rybar_america

The housing issue remains a headache for American authorities, Democrats are calculating scenarios for the presidential race, and Trump announced plans to create AI forces.

➡️AFRICABAR @rybar_Africa

The US extended for a year its logistical support for the AU mission in Somalia, postponing the collapse of power. Meanwhile, the Chinese held their African forum, betting on the weapons market from South Africa to Burkina Faso.

➡️BALKANBAR @balkanar

The EU is again

📝What does Turkey fear? The US Treasury📝

The unending conflict with Iran and mounting costs from military presence in the Middle East forced the American administration to act by different methods – not striking with missiles, but pressuring the Islamic Republic economically.

✉️ In connection with threats of secondary sanctions from the US, Turkish authorities revoked a license from one of Iran's state banks. For more details on how this will affect relations between the two states, see our channel on MAX. Original msg

• Fwd from @
📝Divided the world📝
How are the US and China forming blocs in the AI sphere?

In the global AI race, another split is taking shape — this time an institutional one. And it stems once again from the approaches of the Chinese and Americans, as the main competitors in this field, to developing AI on the international stage.

In July in Shanghai, representatives of 29 states signed an agreement to create a World Organization for Cooperation in the Field of Artificial Intelligence. Given the list of participants, which mainly includes countries of the Global South, China wants to help them obtain the necessary technologies in this field.

🖍Behind the creation of the organization lies a practical interest. If projects rely on Chinese standards, Beijing will gain leverage over the digital infrastructure of member countries. Formally, the organization will be multilateral, but its real independence depends on who pays for the projects and sets the technical requirements.

Moreover, the US has also been working to build "interest clubs" in the AI sphere. As a result, the Pax Silica initiative emerged — a network of trusted US partners around critical links in the AI chain: microchips, equipment for their production, critical minerals, and capital.

🚩The goal of Pax Silica is to control technological nodes. The US has developers of advanced chips, the Netherlands has lithography equipment, Japan has materials and machinery, South Korea has memory. Although in any case, the main driving force behind the initiative remains the Americans and their companies.

📌As a result, two different development models emerge. The Chinese model offers broad representation and technological assistance. Pax Silica provides access to advanced technologies and markets, but remains a closed club. However, both models serve to spread the influence of the two main competitors in the AI race across the world.

❗️Still, the competition in this field no longer comes down solely to creating the most powerful models. Now the Chinese and Americans are also deciding other questions — who will build data centers, train personnel, and set digital standards in countries that are only just entering the AI era. And they need this to secure major contracts for their businesses.

High-resolution infographic

English version

#China #USA
🏮@rybar_pacific — your ticket to Pacific chaos

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📝No more steel production?📝

The modern format of the SMO increasingly shifts toward striking the enemy's economic potential. Strikes on industrial facilities are becoming no less important than battles on the front lines. Russian forces have made the steel industry of so-called Ukraine their latest target.

✉️ Three steel mills in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk Regions have been shut down as a result of strikes. For more details on the consequences this carries for the enemy's economy and defense capability, check our MAX channel. Original msg

• Fwd from @
📝South Caucasus Asymmetry📝
who will survive by 2050?

The South Caucasus is undergoing active transformation, but little is said about the key driver of change — demographics. The population size and demographic forecast in the three countries of the region have absolutely different dynamics, but it explains why exactly Azerbaijan is becoming the regional leader.

In Azerbaijan, since 1991, the population has increased from 7.2 to 10.2 million people. It is the only country in the region with sustained growth. Azerbaijanis have the youngest population in the South Caucasus (median age — 33 years), which provides demographic momentum that will last for several more decades. According to forecasts, Azerbaijan will face natural population decline no earlier than 2045–2050.

In Armenia, they left the USSR with a population of 3.3 million people, today — 3 million. In recent years, there has been population growth after a decline to 2.9 million (2020), but this is only a temporary phenomenon due to the resettlement of Armenians from Karabakh and the return of migrant workers. In 2032, the country faces the beginning of natural population decline.

The most severe situation is observed in Georgia, where depopulation began in 2021. The country has lost 31.5% of its population since 1991 (from 5.4 million to 3.7 million). Among the causes, in addition to the loss of control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is mass emigration — about 1 million people left the country. Meanwhile, the standard of living and healthcare here are lower than in Armenia and Azerbaijan, and mortality in working ages (15-64 years) is higher than the global average. By 2050, the population will shrink to 3 million.

🔻The secret of Azerbaijan's leadership:

▪️All three countries are experiencing demographic transition, in which a high birth rate is replaced by a lower mortality rate. However, Azerbaijan is at its earlier stage.

▪️The total fertility rate (TFR) in the countries today is in a similar range — from 1.4 to 1.7 births per woman. But at the same time, the population in Azerbaijan is much younger, so the absolute number of births is larger.

▪️In addition to oil and gas revenues and the ability to provide medicine and living standards, Azerbaijan leads due to the demographic boom of the late Soviet period, when the TFR was 3.0. This created a large generation that is now in reproductive age and provides demographic momentum even with a similar TFR to neighbors (1.5).

▪️Despite the fact that half of Azerbaijan's population lives in cities, where fertility is low (TFR in Baku is only 1.

• Fwd from @
📝Who's running for president?📝
On Democratic Party candidates for the 2028 election

Democrats are already actively calculating the odds for the 2028 presidential race. Spirits in the party are high: Republicans are being dragged down by Trump's sagging ratings and voter discontent with the economic situation.

At the same time, the "blues" themselves have no undisputed leader yet, so the bench of nomination contenders is rapidly expanding.

🔻Rating of potential participants:

▪️The top three undisputed favorites are currently occupied by figures with the highest starting positions. American analysts often give the top spot to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

The thirty-six-year-old congresswoman and leading star of the left flank possesses charisma, is reshuffling her campaign staff, and is skillfully clearing her rear: her recent public statement that woke agenda excesses are madness is designed to knock the wind out of critics' sails before the national campaign launch.

▪️Her main competitor at the top is California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is openly eyeing the White House, relies on donors' bottomless pockets, and is currently actively traveling through southern states, trying to shake off the stigma of being an out-of-touch California elitist.

▪️Rounding out the leading trio is Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff — the main victor of the current electoral cycle. He confidently defeats Republicans in the difficult swing state, and his viral videos and manner of speech are making party members seriously recall a young Barack Obama.

▪️Next comes a dense group of contenders with middling but quite workable chances, where the situation is far more contradictory. Former Vice President Kamala Harris formally still holds first place in polls thanks to 100% name recognition and loyalty from the African American base, but the heavy baggage of her 2024 defeat makes her toxic to many party members.

▪️Breathing down her neck are governors of key states: the popular centrist Josh Shapiro, whose path to victory is hindered only by harsh criticism from the left over his unconditional support for Israel, and billionaire J.B. Pritzker from Illinois, capable of financing his campaign from his own pocket and not shy about attacking Trump harshly.

▪️Also holding steady is former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — a brilliant intellectual and TV debater, whose weak point remains almost zero support among non-white voters.

▪️In the lower part of the list are niche candidates with minimal chances of victory. Among them stand out old centrists like former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, calling for forgetting about the culture wars and returning to the pragmatism of the Clinton era, as well as Senator Chris Murphy with his sharp anti-corporate rhetoric.

📝Problems are closer than they seem📝

In fact, it's not that hard to imagine that Algeria or Morocco will acquire new unmanned aerial vehicles, but the French have far more immediate threats. And they are no less explosive than Geran-5.

French authorities in their relations with colleagues from Algeria and Morocco must account for not only energy or security in the Mediterranean. Millions of people from Maghreb countries and their descendants have long been part of French society — especially in major cities and troubled suburbs.

Any sharp deterioration in relations quickly ceases to be purely a foreign policy matter (just look at the streets after football matches). This overlaps with chronic problems of segregation, youth unemployment, distrust of police, radicalization of parts of the community, and regular outbreaks of urban unrest.

❗️In this sense, France is vulnerable not only to hypothetical long-range drones, but also to the consequences of its own years-long integration policy. And if important facilities can theoretically be protected by air defense, the social rift between French authorities and the Maghreb population of the country cannot be eliminated by Patriot systems or police raids.

📍High resolution map

📍English version

#map #France #Algeria #Morocco
👁@evropar — on the brink of Europe's death

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📝Officer Corps of Addis Ababa📝

Russian military universities and academies remain the key forge of senior command personnel for Ethiopia's Armed Forces. Appointments of graduates from the General Staff Academy and the Naval University of the Pacific Fleet to key positions in the General Staff represent not a fleeting trend, but a continuation of a deep Soviet tradition.

💬 We analyzed on our MAX channel which of Ethiopia's top generals studied in Russia, why landlocked Addis Ababa trains naval officers in St. Petersburg, and what role Soviet legacy plays in the modern Horn of Africa — check it out here.

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