Mark Penn: GOP Holds The Senate, "Democrats Have Incredibly Weak Candidates In Maine And In Michigan"
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/10/03/penn_gop_holds_the_senate_democrats_have_incredibly_weak_candidates_in_maine_and_in_michigan.html

On "Hannity," pollster Mark Penn said the midterms are hard to predict given how close the races are, but he ultimately expects Republicans to retain Senate control.

SEAN HANNITY: Now, Democrats, they are celebrating in several key Senate races, but we have seen Republicans underestimated in polls in the past. So, which polls can Americans trust?

Anyway, here to join us is the chief pollster of the Trafalgar Group, Robert Cahaly, pollster Mark Penn, FOX News contributor, Jason Chaffetz. Thank you all for being with us. Okay. So, we're really looking at Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, now Minnesota, I think, is fair. Ohio, Texas, Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia.

All right. Mark, you tend -- you work for the Clinton administration, but you're a more moderate Democrat. I think Newt Gingrich's analysis is dead on, which is, it's probably the most unpredictable cycle in his lifetime. I don't think anybody really knows as of today.

MARK PENN, POLLSTER: That is what I actually tell people because when you look at all these polls, they're all within the margin of error. So we know that the last election was two points, but we also know that turnout for the midterms, if you look at it, typically falls off about 20 percent. So we get about 112 million midterm voters compared to about 150 million voters in the general election now -- in a presidential election.

So, turnout's going to be lower. So, turnout is absolutely critical. The polls here are neck and neck virtually everywhere. So I wouldn't say that you could pick a winner or a loser now. I think attitudes towards the economy in the next couple of weeks and turnout are going to be the two critical factors...

HANNITY: Okay, Mark Penn, Republicans seem to have the financial advantage. Donald Trump, my understanding is, has about $850 million. The Republican Senate Committee, the Republican Congressional Committee combined have about $800 million more dollars. That's a lot of money for get out the vote efforts.

How big a part does that play in it?

PENN: Look, get out the vote to me is one of the two critical factors because we know that let's say 112 million are going to vote, way down. So, turnout is far more important in the midterms. And if he spends the money and they actually get there -- remember the Democrats have a big advantage in mail-in voting and if they equalize the mail-in voting or can get them to the polls, that's really important.

And then the other thing that I would do is I would just go to a simple message. Under Biden, inflation was eight percent. Under Trump, it's three percent. You want it to keep going down or you want eight percent?

I probably would blast that out with hundreds of millions of dollars if I could because most voters think that inflation is higher under Trump when it is in fact exactly the opposite.

HANNITY: Yeah. This is not the party that you grew up loving, is it?

PENN: It's a very different -- it's a very different party with some very different candidates at this point. And sometimes it just takes a drubbing to get back common sense...

HANNITY: Mark, last word.

PENN: Yeah, I still think the Republicans hold the Senate because I do think -- I do think the Democrats have incredibly weak candidates in Maine and Michigan.