RCP Polling Minute: Democrats Gain as Americans Size Up AI
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/09/30/rcp_polling_minute_democrats_gain_as_americans_size_up_ai.html

With Election Day less than five weeks away, the midterm map is shifting again. The map of RCP Senate averages (https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/senate/2026/toss-up) predicts a Senate next year with 46 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 9 Toss Up races too close to call.

This week, Democrats widen their advantage on the RealClearPolitics generic ballot (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/generic-congressional-vote), while Polymarket raises their chances of controlling both the House and Senate.

The New Hampshire Senate race moves (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/new-hampshire/pappas-vs-sununu) into the Leans Democrat column, Nebraska becomes a new Senate toss-up (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/nebraska/osborn-vs-ricketts), and Iowa tightens to nearly even (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/iowa/turek-vs-hinson) in the RCP average.

We also look at where RealClearPolitics and Polymarket tell different stories in key Senate races, plus the latest prediction market on a possible state data-center moratorium and new Harvard-Harris polling (https://harvardharrispoll.com/assets/uploads/2026/09/HHP_Sep2026_KeyResults.pdf) on how voters view artificial intelligence.