UMA DIGEST — 21 SEPTEMBER 2026

⚠️ Bugs & Issues

An earlier issue with 15-minute liveness proposals being delayed (effectively treated as 2-hour liveness) was reported by im.the.wizard. The problem appeared to resolve itself by midday.

⚡ Disputes

Berlin State Election (Polymarket) — A proposal resolving the Berlin state election winner market was disputed as premature. At the time of proposal, only exit polls were available — no vote counting and no official media reporting had taken place. raskell1 and armanh01 disputed the proposal, with the consensus being a clear p4 (too early). The proposer lost their bond (~$6,000), with disputants sharing the rewards. im.the.wizard noted that "results don't need to be 100% official but there must be sufficient counting," which was not the case here.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election (Polymarket) — raskell1 flagged a similar market where preliminary results have been published but are not yet final, asking how UMA typically treats preliminary results. viniipaquete suggested the same proposer may attempt further seat-placement markets and warned those would also be disputable.

📋 Clarifications

On election markets generally: exit polls alone are not sufficient for resolution. There must be meaningful official vote counting before a proposal can stand.