UMA DIGEST — 25 SEPTEMBER 2026

🔥 News & Announcements

infinity_d (UMA mod) extended liveness on the Ecuador "US boots on cartel operation" market and the Oct 31 bracket while the team reviewed details. The market ultimately settled YES after photos and reporting confirmed US personnel participated in raids alongside Ecuadorian police. pi7486 later claimed the market misresolved, arguing the evidence showed only "support" roles (excluded by rules) rather than direct participation, referencing a prior clarification where a similar market flipped from 99.5¢ YES to NO.

⚠️ Bugs & Issues

oscarlard built a full website (itf.p4proof.xyz) using ITF's HLS stream timestamps to prove a specific tennis proposal was made 3 minutes 33 seconds before the relevant score (5-7, 4-5) was reached. The tool analyzed 48 proposals across three ITF matches, discriminating 44 valid from 4 P4 proposals with zero false positives or negatives.

📋 Clarifications

The Netanyahu "visual aid at UNGA" market became contentious after he held up a Starlink terminal during his speech. raskell1 argued the visible X/SpaceX logo qualifies as a "graphic" under the rules. jenia9419 and mebeim countered that the terminal bears no readable text or image intended for the audience and does not meet the rule's specific list ("image, map, chart, graphic, or text"). A clarification was requested. The CS2 Exodia/Yaw market was flagged for extension as "highly contentious at best, incorrect at worst" — stradiveri noted it had already been clarified as 50-50.

⚡ Disputes

ITF Tennis P4 dispute (Koike vs Alarcon): oscarlard's timestamp proof showed the Over 21.5 proposal was made ~3.5 minutes before the 5-3→5-4 score change, making it P4. joes49572 (proposer) argued the original dispute was based only on inadmissible logs and assumptions, and that solid direct proof should be required before a P4 ruling. mebeim responded that the disputer's initial reasoning is immaterial — only the facts at hand matter for resolution. joes49572 acknowledged the new evidence is real but maintained the original dispute would have been invalid without it. Discussion broadened into calls for Polymarket to publish clear written rules for P4 evidence standards, rather than relying on precedent and community vibes.

Ecuador cartel operation market: Proposer (armanh01) and girsanov_27 argued US personnel visibly participated in raids with photos, videos and press reports as evidence. pi7486 countered that all reporting described the US role as "support" and "technology provision," which is explicitly excluded by the market's rules, citing a prior clarification (July patrol case). rex416 requested an extension to allow a dispute; armanh01 objected since rex did not dispute himself. The market settled YES without a dispute being filed. pi7486 subsequently claimed the market misresolved.