Morning Bites

🔗China’s crude steel output was down 4% YoY in August, being in line with the dynamics seen in July, per NBS data. On a 8mo26 basis, production was down 3% YoY

Given the continuous contraction of local steel supply (including the 4% YoY decline in 2025, per official data), China’s net steel export volumes have also started to contract gradually in 2026 (-3% YoY in 8mo26), which we believe might foster a normalisation of supplies and lead to a rebound in global steel prices in the medium term. However, if the current dynamic persists and no additional measures are taken, the normalisation process might last through 2026-27 at least

🏢China's property sales declined 15% YoY in August, after the 22% YoY fall in July; they were also 61% lower than in the same month in 2021. Meanwhile, floor space starts dropped a further 30% YoY in August (81% than in 2021). Personal mortgage loans also declined 14% YoY last month (68% lower than 2021), while property completions were down 28% YoY

#steel #property