Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output declined 1.5% YoY in June, after the 1.6% YoY decrease in May, per IAI data. Chinese supply (62% of global Al output) grew 1.8% YoY last month. Although local Al output — 45.1mnt annualised in 1H26 — technically exceeded the cap of 45.0mnt/year (amid utilisation of previously unused quotas, etc), we do not expect the additional volumes to surpass 1.0mnt

Meanwhile, the output of Gulf nations (9% of global Al supply in 2025) shrank 34.5% YoY in June, amid the US-Iran conflict. Specifically, ~60% of the region's Al operations have been affected to various extents since late-February (e.g., UAE’s EMAL, Bahrain’s Alba, and Qatar’s Qatalum). Given the nature of the damage, we anticipate sluggish production dynamics in the region until the end of the year

We maintain our view that strong consumption dynamics in Asia (including grid), combined with concerns over global supply, are likely to provide support for the Al price, which we forecast to average USD ~3,400/t in 2026F

#aluminium