Morning Bites (part 1)

🏦 Global central banks sold net 30t of gold in March, reversing from the 19t net purchases in February, per the World Gold Council's data. This marked the first month of net gold outflows from global central banks since April 2024

Specifically, the major sellers in March were Turkey (60t) and Russia (6t), which offset purchases elsewhere. Quarterly data from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) also showed net sales of 22t in 1Q26 (which were included in March 2026 statistics)

Although, at spot, gold continues to trade above what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level, we believe that the precious metal’s price will remain elevated in 2026. Moreover, intense inflationary pressure, if high oil prices persist, might eventually trigger a bull-run in gold prices, as happened in 1978-1980. In our view, gold outflows from global ETFs and central banks in early-2026 are likely to be temporary and mainly reflect the risk-off sentiment as the Middle East conflict escalated

#gold