Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in mid-April was 2.11mnt, up 0.3% from the previous ten days, but 5.3% lower YoY. Per CISA data, local production slid 6.2% YTD (through 20 April). Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.4% over the period, and were 11.5% higher YoY

Given the ongoing weakness in the global steel market, we believe Beijing might continue to tighten supply on a gradual basis, even though the current five-year plan lacks explicit targets for capacity cuts. After a surge in exports in 2023–25 that weighed on global prices, further gradual supply-side measures from China (>50% of world steel supply) could help rebalance the market and support steel prices in 2026

Meanwhile, the recent suspension of Iranian steel exports until the end of May might also inject some positivity into steel market sentiment; however, we believe the structural effect on prices will be limited, as Iran accounts only for ~3% of global steel exports

#steel