Morning Bites

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production in early-December was 1.87mnt, up 2.8% from the previous ten days, but 7.7% lower YoY. Local steel inventories also gained 3.3% over the period, and were 4.0% higher YoY

CISA data shows that, YTD through 10 December, local production slid 0.7% YoY; however, the official NBS data showed the country's steel output down 4.0% YoY in 11mo25, while Chinese net export volumes (which grew 25% YoY in 2024 and 7% YoY in 11mo25) remain elevated

To recap, in late October, China held a plenum meeting regarding its 2026-30 strategic industries plan (details to be released in March 2026). Given the ongoing crisis on the global steel market, Beijing might introduce additional strict supply-control measures similar to the 2016-17 reform (when >100mnt of steelmaking capacities was removed). The new reform, if announced, might trigger a recovery in global steel prices in 2026, we believe

China accounts for ~57% of global steel supply

#steel