Morning Bites
🏗China’s excavator sales rose 13% YoY in June (domestic + export), accelerating from the +2% YoY in May, according to CCMA data. Specifically, domestic sales were up 6% YoY (still -52% vs. the same period in 2021)
In our view, new Chinese fiscal stimulus in 2H25 (in addition to the recently announced package), if it materialises, would spur a recovery of the local real estate sector, which started to gradually bottom out in 2H24, we believe. Furthermore, Beijing plans to cut 'excessive' steel output in 2025 (up to 2-5% of China’s 2024 supply, per market estimates). Overall, these measures might cool surging Chinese steel exports, and support global steel prices in late-2025 or 2026, in our view
#steel
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