Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output slid 0.7% YoY in February, vs. the +2.6% YoY seen in January, and marked the first negative YoY reading since February 2022, per International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) was flat YoY last month, while ex. China output declined 1.6% YoY. Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,900-3,000/t for 2025F, on our numbers)

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, as well as 42.5mnt in 2mo25 in annualised terms, per IAI data)

#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium