Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output grew 3.0% YoY in December, in line with the November dynamics, per the International Aluminium Institute data. Meanwhile, the figure was up 2.9% YoY in 2024. Chinese production (60% of global Al output) gained 4.5% YoY last month (+4.1% YoY in 2024). Overall, strong consumption dynamics in Asia (incl. grid) and the ongoing monetary easing cycle in key economies (EU/US and China) are likely to add further support to Al, which continues to trade below what we see as its fundamentally reasonable level (USD 2,900-3,000/t for 2025F, on our numbers)

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (China produced 43.4mnt in 2024, per the IAI data)

#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium