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Post #1819 178
Morning Bites (part 2)

🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 1.3% YoY in September, decelerating from the revised 1.6% YoY gain in August, according to International Aluminium Institute data. China’s production (60% of global Al output) rose 1.7% YoY. We maintain our view that at spot Al continues to trade below its fundamentally reasonable level for 4Q24-2025 (USD 2,700-3,000/t, on our numbers)

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43.1mnt annualised in 9mo24)

Overall, strong consumption dynamics in China (incl. solid demand from the local new energy sector and grid), as well as the ongoing monetary easing cycle in the EU/US and China, might add material support to Al prices in late-2024 and 2025

#aluminium  
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
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