Morning Bites (part 1)

🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2.4% YoY in July, decelerating from the revised +3.9% YoY in June, according to the International Aluminium Institute data. China’s production (60% of global Al output in July) rose 2.5% YoY, despite the recent price weakness. We maintain our view that spot Al continues to trade below its fundamentally reasonable level for 2024 (USD >2,500/t), on our numbers

We also note that there is limited potential for additional supply growth in China, as local Al output is capped at 45mnt (vs. ~43mnt annualised in 7mo24)

Overall, strong consumption dynamics in China (incl. solid demand from the local new energy sector and grid), as well as the potential Fed Funds rate cut in September 2024, might add material support to Al prices later this year

#aluminium  
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium