Alcoa 4Q24 results - EBITDA margin slowly recovers

✏️Alcoa's 4Q24 revenues were above both the consensus and our forecasts (by +3% and +8%, respectively) due to upbeat alumina shipments. However, cost pressure was also higher than we had anticipated, so EBITDA matched our forecast (+6% vs. the consensus)

⛏Alcoa‘s outlook for its 2025 alumina production is 9.5-9.7mnt — a decrease of 3-5% YoY due to the curtailment of Kwinana refinery operations — while shipments are expected at 13.1-13.3mnt (flat YoY). Aluminum output is seen at 2.3-2.5mnt, up 4-13% YoY due to smelter restarts, while shipments are expected between 2.6-2.8mnt (vs. 2.6mnt in 2024)

❗️At spot, we expect Alcoa’s 1Q25F EBITDA to be moderately stronger QoQ, as the spot Al price is ~4% above the 4Q24 avg.

#AA #Aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/AA_US